2026 Iran war

Background

Iran's relations with the United States and Israel

A US- and UK-backed coup d'état in 1953 deposed the democratically-elected Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh due to his nationalization of the oil industry, strengthening the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Israel maintained ties with Iran as part of its alliance of the periphery strategy. Resentment of the Shah's autocratic rule led to the 1979 revolution in which Pahlavi was overthrown and replaced by an Islamic republic. Iran severed diplomatic ties with the US and Israel and held the American embassy staff hostage, releasing them after signing the Algiers Accords (1981), in which, among other things, the US agreed not to intervene in Iranian affairs anymore.

During the Iran–Iraq War, the US supported Iraq. In 1988, a US warship struck an Iranian mine, and the US responded by attacking Iran's navy. A few months later, the US mistakenly shot down a civilian Iranian flight. Iran started a ballistic missile program to deter Iraqi missile attacks on Iranian cities during the 1980–88 Iran–Iraq War and to compensate for its lack of a modern air force due to sanctions.

Starting in 1985, Iran began engaging in proxy conflicts throughout the Middle East. These proxy groups became part of the informal 'Axis of Resistance' committed primarily to countering American, Israeli, Saudi, Emirati, and sometimes Turkish influence in the region.

In 2002, Iran's covert nuclear program was first revealed, and Iran denied seeking a weapon. In 2003, Iran's AMAD Project was suspended following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons. In 2005, the US began imposing sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program, and in 2006 the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) imposed a series of sanctions against Iran. The US and Israel conducted a campaign of cyberwarfare against Iranian nuclear facilities to disrupt their operations, while Israel assassinated several top Iranian nuclear scientists. The UNSC concerns about Iran's nuclear program from 2006 led to the multilateral Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the P5+1 and the EU in 2015.

In January 2020, US president Donald Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Quds Force. Following the October 7 attacks on Israel and the start of the Gaza war, tensions further escalated with Israel fighting Iran-backed militias across the Middle East, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Israeli strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah in 2024 were met with Iranian strikes on Israel in April and October. In June 2025, Israel launched the Twelve-Day War by attacking Iranian military and nuclear facilities, provoking Iranian counter-strikes. The United States also joined in support by striking Iranian nuclear facilities during the Twelve-Day War, which ended in a ceasefire.

In early 2026, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu lobbied President Donald Trump for a joint military strike on Iran, specifically targeting its leadership. Following high-level meetings in February, Trump authorized "Operation Epic Fury", with reports citing Israeli intelligence provided by Netanyahu as a decisive factor in the decision.

Nuclear activity in the Middle East

Iranian nuclear program

Nuclear enrichment has been considered a component of Iranian national development plans since the Shah's regime, when the first nuclear program was developed. Iran retained its nuclear program after the 1979 revolution, and has long denied seeking nuclear weapons, saying its enrichment efforts were to generate nuclear power for civilian use. Despite Iran's compliance with the JCPOA, Trump withdrew the US from the deal in 2018, re-imposed sanctions, and adopted a "maximum pressure" strategy. The Biden administration kept most of these sanctions, further damaging Iran's economy. Trump continued the "maximum pressure" approach in his second term. In September 2025, the UN reimposed sanctions on Iran using the "snapback" mechanism, causing the currency to weaken, resulting in price increases for food supplies such as meat, rice, and other staples, freezing Iranian assets abroad, suspending arms transactions, and imposing penalties related to the country's ballistic-missile programme. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent labeled the collapse of the Iranian currency in December 2025 as the strategy's "grand culmination". At his State of the Union Address in February 2026, Trump claimed Iran had restarted its nuclear program and was developing missiles capable of striking the US. Trump's claims contradicted his previous claims that Iran's nuclear program was "obliterated" and US intelligence reports that Iran did not pose any threat towards the US, and needed until 2035 to build such missiles to do so.

On 12 June 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found Iran non-compliant with its NPT safeguards agreement for the first time since 2005. A few days later, it was reported that Iran had stored highly enriched uranium in an underground facility that was undamaged by US bombings in 2025. Subsequently, Iran denied the IAEA access to nuclear facilities that had been bombed, but did provide access to all unaffected facilities. Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said Iran would not permit inspections of facilities struck by the US until the IAEA established rules for the post-war situation, insisting on codified protocols for internationally protected facilities subjected to military attacks, and that the IAEA condemn the attacks.

In February 2026, Iran informed the IAEA that normal safeguards were "legally untenable and materially impracticable" as a result of threats and "acts of aggression", leaving the IAEA unable to verify that Iran had suspended enrichment or confirm the status of its stockpile, though it found no evidence Iran was weaponizing. Analysts in the UK and US characterized Iran's strategy as nuclear hedging. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said that Iran was using its enrichment program and uranium stockpiles for leverage in international negotiations, and was willing to dilute or export its higher-level enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief and prevention of attacks.

Israel and nuclear weapons

Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, with an estimated stockpile of between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads. Israel is the only nuclear-armed country that does not officially acknowledge its nuclear weapons capability. Some scholars have argued that Israel's nuclear weapons have incentivized Iran to develop its own nuclear program, seen as maintaining a balance of nuclear deterrence, or causing a regional nuclear arms race. Citing security threats, Israel rejects international calls to accede to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons or to participate in negotiations of a Middle East nuclear weapon free zone. This has frustrated both US and UK diplomatic efforts towards such a zone. Scholars also suggest US tacit acceptance of the Israeli nuclear weapons capability is seen as a double standard that undermines its diplomatic credibility in Middle East nonproliferation negotiations.

Prelude

Tension between Iran and the United States during negotiations over Iran's nuclear program intensified in January 2026 when Iranian security forces massacred anti-government protesters.

The US began its greatest buildup of military assets in the region since the Iraq War in 2003. The US accused Iran of building up its nuclear and missile programs to threaten the United States and its allies. Iran accused the US of disinformation. Gulf states like Qatar predicted that escalations could severely harm the region. Negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear program were held in February until the US and Israel commenced military strikes in Iran on 28 February 2026.

Hostilities

First three days of war (27 February – 1 March)

On 27 February at 3:38 p.m. EST (11:08 p.m. IRST), Trump, traveling on Air Force One to Texas, authorized Operation Epic Fury. US missiles, drones, and Israeli fighter jets began striking Iran the next day, around 9:45 am. IRST (1:15 am. EST). The strikes took place during negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, and coincided with the holy month of Ramadan. The operation was codenamed Operation Roaring Lion by Israel. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) said it struck 500 military targets in Iran in the largest combat sortie in its history. Iranian naval vessels were also targeted. Israel said it used over 1,200 bombs in 24 hours. US strikes were carried out by planes based around the Middle East and from aircraft carriers.

Initial strikes killed Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials, and hundreds of Iranians were killed or injured. The Iranian Red Crescent said 24 provinces were affected. The strikes were coupled with cyberattacks on Iranian infrastructure, media, and phone apps, with messages calling on Iranians to rise up against their government. The cyberattacks resulted in a near-total internet blackout in Iran, lasting over 60 hours with connectivity dropping to as low as 1% of normal levels, disrupting government communications, state media, and public services. Iran restricted internet access, allowing access only to government-approved users until 26 May. On 28 February, Trump released a statement saying the purpose of the strikes was regime change, citing Iran's support for non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah, killings of protesters, chants of "Death to America", and alleged history of attacking US civilians and soldiers, as well as the Iran hostage crisis. Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu warned of the potential threat of nuclear weapons in Iran and called on Iranians to overthrow their government. Israeli defense minister Israel Katz labeled the strikes a "pre-emptive attack" intended to "remove threats to...Israel". Iran denied that it intended to attack the US.

Iranian units reacted within hours by launching missiles and drones. Iran codenamed its response Operation True Promise IV, and state media dubbed the events the Ramadan War. Among the first targets were American radars in the Middle East which degraded missile-warning capability in the region. Iran struck Israeli targets in Tel Aviv and Haifa as well as countries throughout the Persian Gulf. Targets included Bahrain's capital Manama, Kuwait International Airport, the United Arab Emirates' capital Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia, and Erbil International Airport and the US Consulate General in Erbil in Iraq. Multiple American strategic sites were locally targeted and attacked by Iran. On 1 or 2 March, Iran struck the radar bases for US THAAD missile defense systems in Jordan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, destroying at least one. On 1 March, Iran launched more strikes, including missiles and drones on Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The UK reported "missiles fired in the direction of Cyprus", but "don't believe they were targeted at Cyprus". The presidents of Cyprus and Northern Cyprus denied any missiles were fired at Cyprus. The Palau-flagged Skylight and Marshall Islands-flagged MKD VYOM tankers were targeted off Oman's coast. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a standstill, with 150 freight ships, including oil tankers, stalled. British prime minister Keir Starmer said the US could use British bases for "defensive" strikes on Iran and disclosed that Ukrainian and other specialists would aid Gulf efforts to foil Iranian drone strikes. Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, with US backing, vowed to employ military force against Iranian incursions, calling Iranian strikes "cowardly" due to Saudi airspace being closed to US and Israeli attackers. Trump announced that the US had accepted an Iranian proposal to negotiations. However, Ali Larijani ruled out talks.

End of first week (2–6 March)

On 2 March, the US embassy in Kuwait was struck and closed indefinitely. The US-flagged tanker Stena Imperative and the Honduras-flagged tanker Athe Nova were struck. An advisor to an IRGC commander said he would set fire to any ship coming through the Strait of Hormuz, and added that no oil would leave the area. Qatari air defenses shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers. The Qatari Ministry of Defense announced that Ras Laffan Industrial City, the main Qatari gas facility, and Mesaieed Industrial Area were struck by Iranian drones. According to satellite imagery analysis by the Energy Economics and Society Research Institute, Ras Laffan appeared to not have been damaged before the "unprecedented shutdown" which sent fuel prices higher. The US and Israel attacked the Natanz Nuclear Facility and the Iranian media reported damage to the Khatam-al-Anbia and Gandhi hospitals. In a friendly fire incident, the pilot of an F/A-18 of the Kuwait Air Force shot down three US F-15E fighters. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged strikes. Hezbollah began firing rockets and missiles on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei. Hezbollah claimed that the attack was a "defensive act" after more than a year of Israeli attacks despite a 2024 truce. It added that it restarted fighting to force Israel to stop its aggression and evacuate from seized Lebanese territories, emphasizing that the move was unrelated to the war.

Lebanon banned military activities by Hezbollah after the attacks. An IDF spokesperson stated the attack was "an official declaration of war by Hezbollah" and vowed to "neutralize" the threat. Israel struck southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Beqaa Valley, with the IDF saying it had killed the head of Hezbollah's intelligence Hussein Makled and Adham Adnan al-Othman, the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad's armed wing, the Al-Quds Brigades. The Royal Air Force station at Akrotiri, Cyprus, was targeted by a drone strike causing damage to a runway. Another strike on Cyprus led to Greece announcing that it would deploy frigates and F-16s to defend Cyprus from strikes by Iran. The pro-Iran militant group Iraqi Guardians of Blood Brigades claimed responsibility for attacks on the US Victory Base near Baghdad International Airport and Erbil in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 23 drone strikes on US assets in Erbil.

On 3 March, US and Israeli strikes destroyed the SNSC headquarters, the Expediency Discernment Council building in Tehran, and what Israeli officials described as an alleged underground nuclear weapons facility called Min Zadai. The proximity of these strikes to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (about 12 km (7.5 mi) away) prompted the Russian agency Rosatom to suspend construction on new units and evacuate non-essential staff. A CIA site in the US embassy in Riyadh was hit by Iranian drones. US officials said its forces had severely damaged Iran's naval capabilities, mainly in the Gulf of Oman, where several Iranian warships were destroyed and key bases hit. Debris from an airstrike damaged Golestan Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, causing UNESCO to issue a statement that damaging UNESCO sites is against international law. Israel Katz authorized a ground invasion of Lebanon on 3 March with forces from the 91st Division, with the stated goal to establish a "security layer" against Hezbollah. The Lebanese government reported that Israeli attacks reached Kfarkela and Qouzah, leading the Lebanese army to redeploy from newly established border posts. Israel reported that it killed Daoud Alizadeh, the commander of the Quds Force's Lebanon branch, in Tehran.

Western diplomats said Qatar had struck Iran after Iran had attempted to strike Doha's airport and Qatar shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers. Qatar denied the accusation that it had joined the "campaign targeting Iran". Iran warned it would hit all economic hubs in the Middle East, and any defensive European military involvement would be considered an act of war. On 4 March, US secretary of state Marco Rubio announced that the US-Israeli attacks on Iran would increase in intensity. Israel attacks hit the Basij headquarters. The IDF announced that an F-35I "Adir" shot down a Russian-made Iranian Yak-130 fighter jet over Tehran, the first time that an F-35 shot down a crewed fighter jet in air-to-air combat, and the first time the IAF shot down an aircraft since 1985. Iran launched strikes against the Al Udeid Air Base, and Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refining facility. The US ordered the evacuation of non-essential workers in Cyprus in anticipation of Iranian strikes. A ballistic missile launched from Iran was intercepted by NATO air defense systems as it entered Turkish airspace, marking an escalation in the conflict. Turkey asserted its right to self-defense after the missile landed in Dörtyol, Hatay Province, and NATO secretary general Mark Rutte stated that the alliance was committed to defending Turkey.

An Iranian frigate, IRIS Dena, was sunk in the Indian Ocean by United States Navy submarine USS Charlotte, about 40 nautical miles (74 km; 46 mi) south of Galle, Sri Lanka. The vessel was returning to Iran following its participation in the International Fleet Review 2026 and the multilateral Exercise MILAN at Visakhapatnam, India. The exercise required ships not to carry ammunition, and the US likely knew the Dena was defenseless, since it sent a maritime patrol aircraft to participate. It was the first ship sunk by a submarine in active combat since the Falklands War, and the first by an American submarine since World War II. 104 Iranians were killed. The government of Azerbaijan said on 5 March that drones from Iran struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave damaging an airport and injuring two civilians. Keir Starmer confirmed UK's bases on Cyprus would be used to defend the airspace of Jordan from Iranian drones, while Italy, the Netherlands and Spain confirmed they would send warships to defend Cyprus. Ireland stated it was willing to protect Cyprus and join the European defense coalition mobilized around the island if requested. The IDF killed Hamas official Wassim Attallah al-Ali in Beddawi, Lebanon. Trump said on 6 March that there were "no time limits" for how long the war could continue. The Iranian tanker IRIS Bushehr was interned by the Sri Lanka Navy, marking the first instance of a warship being interned in a neutral country since World War II.

Second week (7–13 March)

On 7 March, the US sent a third aircraft carrier, USS George H. W. Bush, to the Middle East. The British aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales was placed on advanced readiness to defend British interests in the region. On 7 March, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian apologized for strikes on neighboring countries, citing miscommunication in the ranks. He stated those countries would not be targeted unless the US launched attacks from them; however, Iranian attacks continued, highlighting limited control over the IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi. On 8 March, Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba, was designated as Iran's new supreme leader. US Central Command posted a message on X which urged "civilians in Iran to stay at home" and alleged that "[t]he Iranian regime is knowingly endangering innocent lives".

Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian oil storage facilities, killing four people. Strikes on fuel depots near Tehran caused a "river of fire" to pour out along the streets, and the city became engulfed in thick black smoke, causing toxic acidic rain to fall in the surrounding area. US Central Command announced the death of a seventh US service member from an Iranian attack. The UK confirmed its forces had intercepted an Iranian drone headed towards Iraq, and declared its intention to send a Merlin helicopter to the region to detect aerial threats. According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, 65 schools and 32 medical facilities had been targeted, and more than 10,000 civilian sites damaged. On 9 March, NATO confirmed the interception of a second ballistic missile in Turkish airspace. Turkey deployed six F-16s and air defense systems to Northern Cyprus. Trump claimed that "the war is very complete, pretty much", after speaking with Russian president Putin, and said "we already won the war in many ways." Following Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa's support for Lebanon's objective to disarm Hezbollah, the group targeted the city of Inkhil in Syria. About a dozen B-1B bombers arrived at bases in Europe.

GPS jamming of uncertain origin disrupted navigation of ships near the Strait of Hormuz. The United States Department of State designated the Muslim Brotherhood branch in Sudan as a terrorist organization. On 10 March, an IRGC commander stated that Iran was only firing missiles with payloads of 1,000 kg or more. AFP reported that Iran's attacks were the "most intense and heaviest" since the start of the war. This showed a shift in tactics from saturating air defenses to high-impact penetration strikes. American general Dan Caine acknowledged that Iran was fighting back, but not harder than the US expected. Following the Syrian president's support for the disarmament of Hezbollah and a campaign of mobilization by the Syrian army on the Lebanese border, shells from Lebanon landed in Serghaya, 20 km (12 mi) from Damascus where the Syrian Armed Forces forces presided. Israel issued an urgent evacuation notice to southern suburbs of Beirut.

Defense analyst AJ Jaff reported that Iran's ballistic missile launch rate fell 92% from day one of the war (480 to 40) and the drone launch rate fell 92% (720 to 60). On 11 March 14 US bombers were deployed to RAF Fairford in the UK, where bombs were being prepared for loading. This followed US war secretary Hegseth's statement that it was the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran". Israel reportedly struck the Parchin military complex. A branch of Bank Sepah in Tehran was hit by a strike, prompting the IRGC to warn that they could retaliate by striking US or Israeli banks in the region. Iran hit Stryker, a US-based medical supply company with a cyberattack. On 12 March, UNICEF reported that 300 children had been killed, thousands injured, hundreds of thousands displaced, and millions unable to attend schools due to the war.

Iranian deputy intelligence minister Akbar Ghaffari was killed in an airstrike. An Iranian attack set two tankers on fire off the Iraqi coast, killing one person. The historical Safavid-era building of Rashk-e Jenan, was destroyed by US-Israeli strikes. Other buildings damaged included the Chehel Sotoun pavilion, Rakib Khaneh Mansion, Timurid Hall, Ashraf Hall and the Ali Qapu palace. Many affected buildings and monuments were legally protected by the Blue Shield International, which called damaging them a war crime. French soldiers were injured in a drone strike at a base in Iraqi Kurdistan. French president Emmanuel Macron announced on 13 March that a soldier was killed in the attack. On 13 March, to alleviate the economic costs of the war, the US temporarily lifted restrictions on the sale of Russian oil. Iran announced a coordinated offensive by its navy, army, and Hezbollah against Israel and US bases. Israel reported that 58 people have been hospitalized due to injuries following a missile strike. Kuwait authorities stated that defense equipment and the country's main airport were attacked, and power lines gone out of service. Missiles entered Turkish air space and were intercepted, with explosions heard near Adana. Israel struck IRGC checkpoints after receiving tip-offs by informants on the ground. Reuters reported Israel had struck positions of the Basij used to suppress Iranian protests.

Third week (14–20 March)

During the third week, analysts found little evidence of significant defections in the Iranian military, which have been considered a necessary condition for regime change. The US conducted an attack on Kharg Island, a key oil export hub home to 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. Over 90 military sites were targeted; oil infrastructure was not targeted "for reasons of decency", according to Trump. On 14 March, Kata'ib Hezbollah security commander Abu Ali al-Askari was killed in an airstrike in Baghdad. The Royal Tulip Al Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad's Green Zone was hit by a drone whilst hosting an EU and Saudi Arabian delegation. The attack was not claimed by anyone; however, due to the proximity of a similar attack 48 hours earlier on the US embassy in Baghdad, there were suspicions it was an Iranian attack.

On 16 March, China and US-aligned NATO nations in Europe rejected Trump's call to provide military support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump rebuked his NATO allies, calling their decision a "very foolish mistake". On the same day, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the Trump administration will not rule out a military draft. She clarified that a draft was not "part of the current plan" but that the president was open to any suggestions. On 17 March, Trump made a statement on Truth Social renouncing NATO's assistance, and unexpectedly, criticizing US allies in the Indo-Pacific (namely Japan, South Korea, and Australia) for refusing to join US-led attacks on Iran. Trump declared that the United States "[does] not need the help of anyone" regarding the war. In the morning of 17 March, senior Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani were targeted by Israeli airstrikes. Both their deaths were later confirmed by Iranian state media. In response, Iran launched a missile barrage that killed two Israeli civilians in Ramat Gan. The same day, Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

On 18 March, Israel struck the South Pars natural gas field in the Persian Gulf and its neighboring refineries in Iran with US coordination. In retaliation, Iran attacked the world's largest LNG production facility in Qatar, while Trump claimed he had no knowledge of the South Pars attack. Israel said it had killed Iranian intelligence minister Esmaeil Khatib in an overnight airstrike. Pezeshkian confirmed Khatib's killing. A hair salon in Beit Awwa was struck by a projectile, killing four women, with Israeli authorities stating that it was most likely cluster munitions and Palestinian authorities saying it was an errant Israeli interceptor. On 19 March, a US F-35 made an emergency landing after a suspected hit by Iranian forces. A BAZAN Group refinery in Haifa was hit during a broader Iranian missile attack on the area as a retaliation for Israeli attacks on South Pars gas facilities. Netanyahu insisted that "You can't make a revolution from the air" and that "there must be a ground component—I won't share with you all the options", implying that there was a potential for limited assault operations involving soldiers on the ground in Iran. The US began an aerial campaign against Iranian vessels and drones in the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to reopen it to international shipping.

Fourth week (21–27 March)

Admiral Brad Cooper said that the US military had struck more than 8,000 Iranian military targets, including 130 vessels. On 21 March, the US conducted strikes on the Natanz Nuclear Facility using bunker buster bombs to target the site. Russia condemned the strikes on Natanz as a "blatant violation of international law" while the IAEA urged military restraint "to avoid any risk of a nuclear accident". In response, Iran struck the southern Israeli town of Dimona, injuring at least 78 people. Iran said that it targeted the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center. Citing unnamed US officials, CNN and The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran unsuccessfully attempted to strike the joint US–UK military base at Diego Garcia on the Chagos Islands in the British Indian Ocean Territory. The report said one of the missiles broke apart mid-flight, while another was intercepted by a SM-3 air defense missile launched by a US warship. Israel said that Iran used a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile to target the island. Iran denied launching missiles towards Diego Garcia, saying that it was an Israeli false flag attack. In response the UK foreign secretary confirmed and denounced the Iranian attack on their end, and additionally expanded permission for the United States to bomb certain targets using their bases. No evidence has been presented that the alleged Iranian missiles neared Diego Garcia or that one was intercepted.

The Houthi movement in Yemen warned that it would respond to any escalation against Iran, including efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It specifically warned the two Arab countries offering to join the Strait of Hormuz campaign—Bahrain and the UAE—that they "will be the first to lose in this battle". The Houthis further threatened to join the war in the event that US allies joined the attack on Iran or if the US and Israel used the Red Sea to carry out operations. Lebanon's government expelled the Iranian ambassador. Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, threatening to strike its power plants unless it opened the strait within 48 hours. Iran doubled down, threatening to "completely" close the strait and strike vital infrastructure across the region such as energy and desalination facilities critical for drinking water. Iranian opposition figure and former crown prince Reza Pahlavi called on Trump and Netanyahu to target the military while sparing civilian infrastructure which "Iranians will need to rebuild our country." Halfway through the deadline, Trump announced that he was postponing strikes against Iranian power plants for five days, and said the US was negotiating with Iran to end the war. Iran denied the talks ever took place or were taking place, calling him "deceitful". Iran rejected the 15-point peace plan presented by the US. Iran asserted that Lebanon must be included as part of a ceasefire deal, thereby making a ceasefire conditional on an end to the 2026 Lebanon war against Hezbollah.

On 24 March, Israel or its allies shot down an Iranian missile crossing above Lebanon at high altitude, according to the Lebanese army, which also confirmed that the missile was not targeting Lebanon. This was the first time during the current conflict when a shootdown of an Iranian missile took place over Lebanese territory. A US strike on the Habbaniya military base—which hosts units from the Popular Mobilization Forces—in Al Anbar Governorate killed seven members of the Iraqi Armed Forces and injured 13 others. In response, Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani summoned the US embassy's chargé d'affaires in Baghdad. Iranian state media threatened that Iran could seize Bahraini and Emirati territory if the US "makes any mistakes", while signaling its readiness to open a new front in Yemen by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait together with the Houthis. Israel said it killed Iran's top naval commander, Alireza Tangsiri, purportedly as part of an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Katz said Tangsiri was "directly responsible" for the closure of.

On 27 March, a day after Trump and Hegseth announced the "neutralization" of Iran's military, an Iranian missile and drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base damaged several US refueling aircraft and injured at least 15 US soldiers. An E-3 Sentry was also damaged by the strike. Military analyst Cedric Leighton described the attack as a "a serious blow to [US] surveillance capabilities". The same day, Iran blocked two Chinese ships from entering the strait and sought to formalize fees for ships passing through it. Despite pushes for talks, Israeli defense minister Israel Katz publicly vowed to "intensify and expand" Israeli attacks in Iran. The same day, the Shahid Khondab Heavy Water Complex in Arak—which has in the past been used to test uranium enrichment—and the Ardakan yellowcake production plant in Yazd Province were confirmed to have been damaged in Israeli airstrikes.

Fifth week (28 March – 3 April)

The Houthis joined the war on 28 March launching a ballistic missile towards Israel while stating that they had launched ballistic missiles targeting "sensitive" military sites in Israel; the missile was intercepted and no casualties were reported. The Houthis subsequently launched a second missile at Eilat. In response, the internationally recognized Yemeni government condemned Iran's "frequent attempts to drag Yemen" into conflict "through its terrorist militias". On the same day, 2,500 US marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrived in the Middle East, expected to be part of US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that it had struck over 11,000 targets in Iran since the beginning of the war. On 28 March, joint US–Israeli airstrikes severely damaged several residential and civilian facilities, including the Iran University of Science and Technology. In response, Iran threatened to attack Israeli and American colleges across the Middle East. Airstrikes also struck a 10,000-cubic-metre (350,000 cu ft) water reservoir in Haftkel, in Khuzestan province. An Iranian missile struck a chemical plant in the Ne'ot Hovav industrial zone, injuring one person and causing fears of a hazardous leak. A convoy of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces was seen entering Khorramshahr in southwestern Iran. Eleven-year-old child soldier Alireza Jafari was killed in an Israeli drone strike "while serving" at a checkpoint on a Tehran highway; Amnesty International called the organized Iranian recruitment of children as young as Jafari a war crime. On 29 March, Trump stated that he would prefer to "take the oil in Iran". He proposed taking Iran's oil export center, Kharg Island, claiming that the United States could capture the territory "very easily", and implying that the US could occupy it for some time.

On 30 March, Trump said that if a deal were not reached soon and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the US would strike all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly all its desalinization plants, although the feasibility and strategic value of some of Trump's threats were contested. On the same day Turkey and NATO intercepted the fourth missile directed towards Turkish territory. Iran denied firing a missile at Turkey, claiming that it was a false flag attack. The US began flying B-52 bombers over Iranian territory for the first time, indicating its confidence of air supremacy over Iran. The US used bombers to target an ammunition depot and air base in Isfahan, causing large explosions. U.S-allied Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain reportedly pushed Trump to continue the war until there are significant changes in Iran's leadership. American journalist Shelly Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad by Kata'ib Hezbollah—the strongest faction within the PMF—who demanded that the Iraqi government release several detained members of the group. On 1 April, Mehr News Agency, a semi-official Iranian government news outlet, reported that policy expert and former foreign minister Kamal Kharazi was seriously injured and his wife was killed in an airstrike which hit his home. Iranian officials described the attack as an attempt to derail diplomacy, noting that Kharazi was overseeing a possible meeting between Iranian officials and US vice president JD Vance. Airstrikes on the strategically important Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz caused seven injuries. Netanyahu asserted that the US–Israeli strikes have eliminated Iran's ability to produce nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, thereby removing "two existential threats" to Israel.

Late in the day on 1 April, Trump made a speech addressing the nation, in which he said that the strikes have "dramatically curtailed" Iranian missile and drone systems, and added that the attacks on Iran will escalate over the next two to three weeks to "bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong". On 2 April, two US strikes on the B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj, which was described as the highest bridge in the Middle East, reportedly killed eight people and wounded 95 others, causing it to collapse. Experts assessed the attack as a possible war crime; it was celebrated by Trump. At the time of the attack, many Iranian families had been gathered in the parks below the bridge to celebrate Sizdah Be-dar. Iran revealed major damage to the century-old medical center Pasteur Institute of Iran. US defense secretary Hegseth boasted of "death and destruction from the sky all day long". The IDF also announced that one of its strikes in the Kermanshah area of Iran killed Iranian ballistics missile chief Makram Atimi and several battalion commanders from Atimi's central Iranian ballistic missile unit. An Iranian ballistic missile strike damaged an Israeli drone factory in Petah Tikva. On the same day, Iran's army chief, Amir Hatami, stated that if US forces invade the country, "not a single person" among the invaders will survive.

On 3 April, Iranian forces shot down a US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet over the country, with the wreckage falling in the Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province of Iran, the first incident of its kind in more than 20 years. The pilot was rescued that same day, but the WSO remained missing and was rescued alive 48 hours later in a "high-stake" operation involving US special forces supported by 155 aircraft. A US A-10 "Warthog" aircraft was downed and its single crew member ejected near the Strait of Hormuz and was rescued. Iran released a video that, according to Iran, showed the downing of the aircraft using a surface-to-air missile. On the same day, Tehran's Shahid Beheshti University was hit by airstrikes, making the total number of universities hit to more than 30, according to the Iranian Minister of Science.

Sixth week (4–7 April)

On 4 April, explosions were reported at an auxiliary building of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant as well as the Mahshahr Special Petrochemical Zone in Mahshahr, Iran. The airstrikes in Mahshahr killed at least five and injured 170 others. An Iranian missile strike hit in the vicinity of the IDF's HaKirya headquarters in Tel Aviv. On 5 April, after heavy fighting, the second stranded crew member from the F-15E downed on 3 April was recovered by US forces in a rescue operation, which resulted in damage to helicopters, the shooting down of an A-10 Thunderbolt II, and the destruction of two C-130 Hercules, three IRGC members killed, and several American service members injured.

On 6 April, the IRGC announced that the head of the IRGC's intelligence organization, Major General Majid Khademi, had been killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike. Their statement claimed that Khademi had "played a major role in Iran's intelligence and security apparatus over nearly five decades". Israel said that Yazdan Mir, a high-ranking commander of the IRGC Quds Force, had also been killed in the attacks. On the same day, before Trump's deadline for targeting Iranian infrastructure, Israel carried out strikes on the South Pars Petrochemical facility in Asaluyeh, Iran. The IAF said that "85% of Iran's petrochemical exports" had been taken offline by now. At least 34 people, including six children, were killed in US-Israeli airstrikes across Iran, including against Sharif University of Technology and residential areas. Iranian vice president and reformist politician Mohammad Reza Aref, who is also an alumnus of the university, described the alleged use of a bunker-buster bomb as a "symbol of Trump's madness and ignorance".

On 7 April, The Rafi'-Nia synagogue in central Tehran was destroyed in an airstrike. Israel said that the building was destroyed due to collateral damage and that it was never meant to be the direct target of the airstrike. The same day, US forces began strikes on Kharg Island. In response, Iran said its restraint in targeting oil infrastructure in the region would no longer apply. Trump posted to Truth Social that "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again", causing international concern that Trump would use nuclear weapons. The Secretary General of Amnesty International said that Trump's statement "may constitute a threat to commit genocide". Multiple right-wing commentators and many Democrats condemned the post, and some called for him to be removed through the 25th Amendment. The White House denied considering using nuclear weapons and later said that "only the president knows" what he would do on Iran. A leaked US intelligence report concluded that Iran retained 70% of missiles and launchers at this point, despite Trump claims regarding "destruction" of Iran's military. In the United Nations Security Council, China and Russia vetoed a Bahraini-led draft resolution calling on member states to coordinate efforts to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with Chinese representative Fu Cong stating that adopting such a draft when the U.S. was threatening the survival of a civilization would send the wrong message. The vetoes were condemned by Trump administration’s UN representative Mike Waltz, who accused them of siding with a regime seeking to intimidate the Persian Gulf Arab states into submission.

Ceasefire, dual blockade and Islamabad Memorandum (8 April – 19 June)

On 7 April, Trump announced that the US and Iran had reached an agreement based on the 10-point proposal mediated by Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir. The US, Israel, and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, under which Iran would re-open the Strait of Hormuz. After the announcement, Iran's Lavan Island oil refinery and Sirri Island crude export facilities were struck; no party claimed responsibility. In response, Iran continued missile and drone strikes on Gulf Arab states. The refinery attack was later revealed to have been done secretly by the UAE.

Israel and the US asserted that the ceasefire did not include Lebanon, contradicting the Pakistani mediators and Iran. Hezbollah said it had halted attacks on Israel and on Israeli soldiers in Lebanon. Despite the ceasefire, Israel launched "Operation Eternal Darkness", which, according to Israeli forces, included targeting all Hezbollah's command and control centers in southern Lebanon, Beirut and the Beqaa Valley. Local observers disputed this, saying the attacks were not targeted. These were the largest attacks since the start of the war, killing at least 357 people and injuring more than 1,200. In Beirut alone, 92 people were killed and at least 740 injured. In response, Iran threatened to attack Israel "if the aggressions against dear Lebanon are not brought to an immediate end". Iran paused Strait of Hormuz traffic over Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for launching rockets towards northern Israel as a response to "ceasefire violations".

On 11 April, Trump said that American forces had started "clearing" the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claimed that an American ship on its way to the strait turned back after being warned. The Wall Street Journal reported US Navy destroyers entered the strait for the first time since the war began. The Iranian government reportedly threatened to attack the ships, accusing the US of a ceasefire violation. US Central Command said the ships were minesweeping. On the same day, the talks between the US and Iran—the highest-level discussions between the two since the 1979 Islamic Revolution—were held in Islamabad, Pakistan, lasting 21 hours. JD Vance announced no agreement was reached and Iran had refused "to accept our terms". Trump stated he no longer cared about negotiations. Trump declared that the US Navy would begin its blockade of "all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz" from 13 April. He said the US Navy would stop any ships that paid tolls to Iran. However, United States Central Command clarified that the blockade would only be enforced on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports. The IRGC Navy said any military vessel approaching the strait would be considered a ceasefire violation and meet a "severe response." Trump threatened to strike fast-attack ships of the IRGC Navy, similar to US strikes on drug traffickers during Operation Southern Spear. Iran had 13 days of oil storage capacity, forcing it to shut down its oil fields and potentially damaging them. An analyst estimated loss of import and export capacity would be US$435 million per day.

On 16 April, Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ten-day truce. Iran announced that passage of commercial vessels through the strait would be allowed during the truce, however, Trump said that the blockade would continue, with Iran reimposing restrictions on the strait. The US stated that its blockade had intercepted 23 ships. Despite Iran's seizure of two cargo ships, Trump claimed total control over the strait. The Guardian described the situation as a "dual blockade", saying that while the US Navy could blockade Iranian ports, it had been unable to stop Iran's blockade and open the strait to allies. Israel and Lebanon agreed a three-week extension of their ceasefire. On 8 June, the IDF announced that it struck military sites in Iran, with explosions reported in Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz. This triggered an exchange between the two countries. Two Iranian soldiers were killed in an Israeli attack. Iran afterwards said it had ceased military actions against Israel. Israel stopped strikes at Trump's request. On 9 June, The New York Times reported that American crew was rescued after a helicopter went down near the strait. CENTCOM said they were rescued by a US Navy drone boat for the first time. Trump said Iranians had shot down the helicopter and pledged to respond. A US official said a Shahed one-way attack drone downed the helicopter. Iran said it did not deliberately target the helicopter. CENTCOM later said that it launched "self-defense" strikes in retaliation. One attack damaged water reservoir tanks in Sirik; Iran stated that 20,000 people had lost access to drinking water.

On 14 June, Iran said that the draft US deal included Tehran agreeing not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons, and the US agreeing to allow Tehran to dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile in Iran. Trump and Iran announced they had reached an agreement to end the war and reopen the strait. Trump said he had authorized the lifting of the US blockade. On 15 June, US vice president JD Vance announced that the memorandum was digitally signed by both countries the previous day. On 17 June, Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum to end the war, with Trump signing it during dinner with French president Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles after the G7 summit. On 18 June, Pakistan stated that the signing of the memorandum implies Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz "instantly" and the American blockade will end "immediately." CENTCOM announced that it had removed the naval blockade. On 19 June, Trump announced a renewed ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in the 2026 Lebanon war, facilitated by the US, Qatar, and Iran. However, on 20 June, Hezbollah announced an attack on Israeli forces trying to capture Ali al-Taher in Nabatieh, while Israel continued to strike southern Lebanon.

Collapse of the June ceasefire (July)

The ceasefire collapsed on 8 July 2026, after a brief period of reduced tension under a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on 14 June 2026. Trump declared the agreement "over" after Iran attacked three commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States Central Command retaliated by launching airstrikes against 80 targets throughout Iran, including Darkhovin Nuclear Power Plant. Following that, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out 85 counterattacks against US and allied military installations throughout the region, including those in Bahrain and Kuwait. Three US service members—1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, and Sgt. Angel S. Rampersad—were killed in one of those attacks on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan that housed US personnel. The US then reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports and withdrew its temporary sanctions waivers.

Global oil prices surged above $100 per barrel after the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabian shipping.

Military lull (August)

Active hostilities slowed in August 2026, when the formal 60-day deadline set by the June MoU officially expired. The Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted during this period and mediators Oman and Qatar were involved in backdoor diplomacy, slowing world energy shipping to a fraction of its pre-war volume.

Renewed hostilities (September–present)

In early September 2026, the US and Iran resumed trading attacks. Iran continued to use land-based batteries to intercept and obstruct commercial shipping lanes despite a US sanctions campaign, which led to the lowest transit rates through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war.

After the Yemeni civil war escalated significantly, the conflict spread to a second maritime front. The Strait of Bab al-Mandab crisis began when Iran-backed Houthi forces launched an offensive against the internationally recognized Saudi-backed government along Yemen's western coast.

Houthi fighters took control of the Hanish Islands, Perim Island, the coastal town of Dhubab, and the strategically important port city of Mokha during the offensive. The group gained control of the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, a vital global chokepoint, as a result of this advance.

On 22 September, indirect "shuttle talks" between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff through international mediators briefly resumed on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. Iran reiterated its demands for permanent peace through communications sent through a Qatari mediator, including the complete lifting of the naval blockade, the immediate release of frozen Iranian financial assets, the end of the war on all fronts, and the halt to US military actions.

On 26 September, Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal and expressed doubt that Tehran would eventually comply with his administration's nuclear demands. In a phone interview the following day, Trump said that he still expected more talks with Iran to resume during the week. Trump claimed that Iran "wanted to make a deal," but they "overplayed their hand" by offering conditions that the US "would have maybe agreed to a year ago."

By late September 2026, crude oil and petroleum flows through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered to 77% to 80% of pre-war levels, totaling an estimated 13.19 million barrels per day. A US Navy campaign that used armed convoy escorts and unmonitored "dark transits" was responsible for the stabilization of shipping traffic.

Iran's own oil and petrochemical exports were severely limited at the same time due to the combined effects of an active US naval blockade and a broad secondary sanctions campaign known as Operation Economic Outcast. This economic contraction drove the Iranian rial to a historic low of 2.5 million rials per U.S. dollar, significantly eroding Iran's primary geopolitical leverage against Washington. Despite the decline in its conventional enforcement capabilities, the IRGC maintained asymmetric tactics, ensuring maritime insurance premiums remained highly elevated.

As worries about Iranian retaliation grew, the US military sent two more Patriot missile batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar in September 2026 to safeguard vital energy infrastructure. A vital Saudi oil facility was protected by one battery, and a natural gas facility in Qatar was protected by the other. U.S. military planners pointed out that obtaining Saudi Arabia's consent to use its airspace was dependent on making sure its energy facilities were sufficiently protected. The strategic deployment was intended to reassure the Gulf allies as Trump prepared for the possibility of resuming major combat operations against Iran.

The US military started sending about 9,000 soldiers to the Middle East on naval ships, such as the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group and the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, on 1 October.

Casualties and damages

The US and Israel killed many Iranian commanders and leaders on the war's first day by causing Iran to believe that strikes were not imminent. Thus, groups of senior Iranian officials continued gathering in person. These gatherings were targeted in initial strikes. One part of the deception was information about a US F-22 deployment leaked to hide that preparations were more advanced at other bases. Calls between Trump and Netanyahu before the war were not publicized to diminish the possibility of an Iranian first strike.

IDF spokesperson Effie Defrin stated that months of joint US and Israeli "strategic and operational deception" of satellite imagery led up to the war. This encompassed planes and other facilities. The night of the initial strike he and IDF chief of staff Eyal Zamir took their official cars home from IDF Headquarters. They came back without them so that satellite imagery would show that their base did not appear full nor warplanes appear armed and ready. Three separate gatherings of Iranian officials were hit within half a minute of each other in the opening strike. War sources revealed that the American-Israeli strikes targeted IRGC bases, border guard posts, and other security facilities to attempt to allow for potential ground incursions from both Kurdish separatists to the northwest and Baloch separatists to the southeast. There were no reports of cross-border operations from either of the ethnic militant groups, although Iran had engaged in attacks against both of them, reportedly killing both Kurdish fighters of the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan and Baloch fighters of the People's Fighters Front originating from outside Iran.

Analysis of satellite images by The Washington Post revealed damage to at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at US bases across the Persian Gulf, far more than the Trump administration has admitted to. On 1 March, six US soldiers were killed amid more than 30 injured in an Iranian drone attack near Camp Arifjan in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. Those killed were soldiers of the United States Army Reserve assigned to the 103rd Expeditionary Sustainment Command, headquartered in Des Moines, Iowa. On 8 March, CENTCOM reported that a National Guard soldier died during a medical emergency. A soldier of the 1st Space Brigade was wounded in an attack against Prince Sultan Air Base on 1 March and died from his injuries on 9 March.

According to a May report by the Congressional Research Service, 42 U.S. military aircraft were destroyed or damaged during the Iran-U.S. conflict. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicates that about 65 percent of the 2,330 US Patriot interceptor missiles available at the beginning of the conflict with Iran were used between February and July, leaving less than 850 missiles remaining.

Direct impacts

United States

Reserves

The United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to its lowest level in four decades, with possibility of permanent damage to the caverns if the withdrawals continue.

Military

The war exposed shortages in the US' weapons stockpiles, calling into question years of defense investment after the September 11 attacks. After less than five months of the war, US was already running out of ammunition against a middle-tier adversary. This could limit US ability to deter other adversaries, including Russia and China. Former secretary of defense Leon Panetta described this as a "dangerous moment". The US has no longer the capacity to deter a future conflict in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

The United States consumed more than half of its Patriot missiles used to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. The stockpiles limitation has reportedly turned into a key determinant for continuation or expansion of the conflict. As of 5 August 2026, the US had reportedly used roughly 80% of its THAAD missiles in the war.

The United States burned through "virtually all" of its PrSM and ATACMS munitions, and "a little less than half" of its global Tomahawk supply, according to a Reuters report on 4 August.

On 6 August, Trump and Hegseth clashed at Camp David over "extreme missile shortages", according to Washington Post. Trump claimed he felt misled, while Hegseth put the blame on his deputy, Stephen Feinberg. Trump denied the aforementioned report, and threatened long prison sentences for anyone leaking information about military supplies. As of 14 August, the US had reportedly lost around 25% of their Reaper drones in the war. The Trump administration took the unusual step of subjecting approximately 50 members of the US military's Joint Chiefs of Staff to polygraph tests over leaks to journalists, including information about how the war has resulted in a shortage of critical munitions.

Early attacks on US bases caused logistics issues in US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.

The Pentagon has transferred weapons stored in Asia and Europe to replenish stockpiles in the Middle East. Still, missile interceptors shortage reportedly persuaded Trump to call off a planned major attack on Iran. The Trump administration blames the shortage on Joe Biden giving too many weapons to Ukraine.

On 17 September, Lockheed Martin received the first batch of Patriot interceptor parts from General Motors less than a month after the two companies signed a manufacturing agreement, in a success for the Pentagon's push for faster weapon production, particularly the Patriot missile defense system, as it remained one of the world's most sought-after weapons for the war and Russia's war in Ukraine.

Allegations of war crimes

In September 2026, a UN-commissioned fact-finding mission panel found "reasonable grounds" to believe that the United States had committed war crimes during military strikes in Iran during the 2026 Iran war. The report highlighted two 28 February strikes that killed at least 178 civilians.

U.S. president Donald Trump's threats to completely destroy Iranian power plants and other essential infrastructure during the 2026 Iran war have been widely condemned by human rights organizations, legal experts, and lawmakers as potential war crimes.

The report published by the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran detailed two specific U.S. military operations on the first day of the 2026 Iran war that it determined constituted indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure, the Minab School Bombing, where a U.S. Tomahawk missile strike targeted the Shajareh Tayyebeh Primary School in the southern city of Minab. The attack killed more than 150 people, including approximately 120 children. The UN mission concluded that the school was the intended point of impact rather than collateral damage, as well as the Lamerd Sports Complex Strike, where a separate U.S. airstrike utilized precision strike missiles to disperse tungsten pellets over a clearly identifiable sports complex and residential area in Lamerd. The attack resulted in the deaths of 22 civilian men and women.

The Trump administration firmly rejected the allegations. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly dismissed the findings as "unserious nonsense," stating that the U.S. does not give credibility to the report and asserting that the Iranian regime is the only party committing war crimes in the conflict. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) previously denied responsibility for the strike in Lamerd and stated it was investigating the incident in Minab.

Iran

Leadership

The death of Ali Khamenei triggered an election for a new supreme leader. Under the terms of Iran's constitution, the Interim Leadership Council was established on 1 March to exercise the functions of Iran's head of state until a new supreme leader is elected.

Mojtaba Khamenei was elected on 8 March 2026 to replace his father as supreme leader, and the IRGC, as well as Iran's top leaders, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Ali Larijani, and Masoud Pezeshkian, pledged their allegiance to him.

In late March, the NYT described Iran's leadership as paralyzed with severely disrupted decision-making process. It also reported that the damage to communications infrastructure caused paranoia and internal power struggles.

As of 21 May, Khamenei remains in hiding and the de facto ruler is uncertain. The IRGC is currently under command of the hardliner general Ahmad Vahidi, who is cited as the formulator of Iran's military and negotiation stance. The Telegraph has revealed a shadowy partnership with the retired IRGC commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari.

Civilian life

According to UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk, the "reckless" war is disproportionately impacting civilians in the Middle East and beyond.

138,000 civilian sites in Iran were damaged during the conflict, with estimated time of reconstruction being 2-5 years.

As the US and Israel executed joint strikes targeting Iranian military and institutional targets, Iran's capital reportedly became a ghost town, as civilians feared going outside or to their daily jobs. Reports have emerged that prisoners in Evin Prison have been receiving limited bread and water since the onset of the war. After the strikes, schools were ordered closed while banks and government offices remained in operation at reduced capacity. Local media reported that subway and bus services would remain operational.

During the "near total" internet blackout in Iran, NetBlocks reported that internet connectivity dropped to 4% of ordinary levels. As the internet blackout exceeded 240 hours, making it the second longest ever, the government started handing out "white sim cards", which bypass filters, to government supporters, to allow them to promote its messaging. As news of Khamenei's death broke, security forces were deployed to prevent an uprising, with footage showing them opening fire on celebrants in the streets and shooting at people chanting behind the windows of their homes.

During the first two weeks of March 2026, over 70,000 Afghan refugees returned to Afghanistan, frequently under forced circumstances, exacerbating the country's severe humanitarian crisis. Arafat Jamal, the UNHCR Representative in Afghanistan, noted that they faced limited options amid the military confrontations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

According to The Guardian, the war has overshadowed the executions of political prisoners in Iran, including those involved in the mass protests of January 2026, allowing Iran to continue carrying out death sentences and other severe punishments with little international scrutiny. According to several Iran-focused human rights groups, the rate of sentencing and executions by hanging surged amidst the war. The groups state that in most of these cases, executed prisoners did not receive due process.

Military

On 26 March, it was reported that children as young as 12 years of age may join Iran's war support, leading to concerns of the use of child soldiers. Days later, rights groups stated an 11-year-old was killed while on duty at a Tehran checkpoint.

On 29 March, footage showed Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces deployed in Iran.

A leaked US intelligence report concluded in May that Iran retained 70% of missile and launchers relative to pre-war status.

Iran has become more skilled as the war progressed, learning how to evade American air defenses. Iran managed to extend the conflict to include most of the Middle East and enlisted allied militia in Iraq and Yemen.

Cultural heritage sites

Multiple historic and cultural sites, including UNESCO World Heritage Sites, were damaged. The most affected was Chehel Sotoun and its rich ayeneh-kari. On 2 March, a strike on Arg Square damaged nearby Golestan Palace, prompting UNESCO to issue a statement of concern. On 5 March, the Azadi Sport Complex was bombed. An 8 March strike on Falak-ol-Aflak, which was marked with a blue shield emblem, damaged several sections of the site. Strikes on Isfahan on 9 March damaged Naqsh-e Jahan Square, Chehel Sotoun, Ali Qapu, the Shah Mosque, Jameh Mosque, and Teymouri Hall.

On 11 March, UNESCO urged protection for Iran's heritage sites and World Heritage Sites that have been damaged or are under high risk due to the war, alongside other historic sites in Israel, Lebanon, and the rest of West Asia. On 17 March, blast waves and shrapnel damaged multiple palaces at Sa'dabad Complex in northern Tehran. Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that strikes in Tehran on 1 April damaged the St. Nicholas Orthodox Church and its auxiliary buildings. On 7 April, the Rafi'-Nia synagogue was fully destroyed by the IAF.

Israel

Israel declared a nationwide state of emergency, saying that the strikes on Iran were the largest that it had ever launched. Israeli schools and workspaces were closed and public gatherings were canceled.

In the 40 days from the start of the war through the 8 April ceasefire, there were a total of 650 missile attacks from Iran to Israel, the majority of which carried cluster munitions. About 16 of the missiles that made it past Israeli missile defenses carried conventional warheads, while 50 had cluster munitions. The attacks killed a total of 24 people, all of them civilians, and resulted in more than 7,000 injuries. Of the 24 civilians killed, 14 were struck by conventional explosive warheads and 10 by cluster submunitions. Two of the deaths were inside a sheltered space, with the other fatalities being people in unprotected areas.

Palestine

The Israeli Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories closed multiple aid crossings in the Gaza Strip, specifically interrupting free circulation on the Egypt–Gaza border. Israeli forces suspended United Nations humanitarian movements and postponed planned rotations of international humanitarian staff, including medical evacuations and the return of people into Gaza, which the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs condemned.

Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in occupied West Bank has increased; settlers have taken advantage of curbs on movement imposed during the renewed Israeli state of emergency. The renewed blocking of West Bank roads in the context of the 2026 Lebanon war has delayed medics from assisting injured Palestinians. The EU stated on 10 March that the Israeli actions were unacceptable and urged the Israeli authorities to make immediate efforts to prevent the violence against Palestinian civilians under international law, warning that "impunity for such acts risks provoking further violence".

Lebanese displacements

Lebanon stated in March that over one million people, one-sixth of the population, had been displaced.

Persian Gulf Arab states

The Arab states of the Persian Gulf started a campaign of prosecution against civilians and foreign citizens that shared or reposted rumors from unverified sources about the Iranian attacks, with the stated main goal to curb misinformation that could harm public order. Bahrain's Cyber Crime Directorate also started a campaign of arresting civilians in the country, which has a large Shiite minority, who allegedly expressed "their support for the Iranian shelling targeting the Kingdom of Bahrain", describing such activities as treason and as promotion of hostile acts against the state. Trump said "Even if we knew Gulf countries would be hit, big deal we did what we have to do".

Saudi Arabia invoked its Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Pakistan. Pakistan deployed some 8,000 troops, a squadron of 16 aircraft, and two squadrons of drones. There was a pledge to send more if required.

On 28 May, the US president Donald Trump threatened to "blow up" Oman if it failed to "behave" in a casual aside during a cabinet meeting after reports of talks between Iran and Oman about jointly charging a toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic impacts

The war had global economic consequences: oil and gas prices surged, aviation and tourism were disrupted, and financial markets shuddered. In September 2026, daily charter rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) carrying up to 2 million barrels of crude from the Persian Gulf to China rose above $1.2 million, according to the Financial Times. The surge followed disruptions to oil shipping routes that forced tankers onto longer voyages and reduced the number of vessels available for hire, increasing freight costs and putting pressure on refiners' margins. International Energy Agency (IEA) head Fatih Birol described the situation as the "greatest global energy security challenge in history". The Iranian government's spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, estimated the direct and indirect cost of 40 days of war by $270 billion, or 90% of the estimated Iranian GDP in 2026. Citing Mohajerani, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a neoconservative think tank, estimates damages of up to $300 billion, with a middle estimation range of $144 billion. According to the Center for American Progress, as of 14 July, Americans had paid more than $68 billion in extra costs for gas and diesel since the beginning of the war, in addition to the direct war costs. According to reports, the U.S. war with Iran has cost the U.S. government approximately $40 billion as of July. Defense Priorities's Middle East director Rosemary Kelanic pointed out that Trump continually jawboned oil markets to suppress oil prices by calling off his military threats in quick responses to negative financial reactions.

Houthi-controlled Yemen threatened shipping in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. Its threats had been suspended since 10 October 2025. March threats by Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi had not stopped Red Sea traffic as of mid-April, although traffic remained under historic levels after crashing in 2024 as a result of Houthi attacks. On 15 March, the Associated Press reported that the weapons stockpile of the Houthis was running low from repeated attacks on Israel, while Iran had not been able to resupply them, because of the war. Three Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates were struck and damaged as a result of drone strikes, leading to outages of web infrastructure within the Middle East, causing "sparks and fire" as well as "major structural damage" for 2 of the centers, with internal water levels reaching up to 4 cm, worsened by the failure of cooling and air systems. Fundamental web infrastructure including S3 storage, EC2 compute and DynamoDB databases suffered complete outages in early March. Iran shut down Internet access for its people throughout the war.

In mid September, the US House of Representatives voted for a third time, to end the war, shortly after a CBO report warned the conflict had already cost at least $38 billion, was depleting defensive missile stockpiles to the point of a five-year rebuild, and would add roughly $3 billion per month while fueling inflation.

Environmental impacts

Airstrikes on industrial and fuel hubs have released a chronic toxic cocktail of benzene, heavy metals, and persistent 'forever chemicals' (PFAS), triggering 'black rain' in major cities and causing long-term health degradation for civilians.

The high oil prices driven by wars in the Middle East, including Iran, created a surge in profits of oil companies, pushing them to increase production as opposed to targets set by the Paris climate agreement. The planned expansion is projected to exceed the International Energy Agency's regular scenario – a 5.9% increase in oil and gas production in the 2020s, leading to a 2.9 °C (5.2 °F) global temperature increase.

Reactions

Internationally, the war elicited reactions from governments, faith leaders and global governance bodies, as well as protests, unrest, and coverage from global media. Most countries did not take a definitive side in the conflict, but more countries opposed the US-Israeli attacks than supported them. Some US allies and partners, such as Canada, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Argentina, supported the attack, while others, such as France, Italy, Brazil and Turkey, expressed opposition. In the Middle East, most countries criticized the Iranian attacks. In Europe and Latin America, many countries condemned the US-Israeli attacks, and most condemned the Iranian retaliation. In Asia, many condemned the attacks or called for peace. The war provoked protests against it, as well as others in support of the Iranian opposition.

The war was unpopular in the United States, and increasingly so as it continued. A majority of Americans thought the decision to start the war was wrong, that the war had hurt US interests, and that it should end as soon as possible. By July, 58% of Americans opposed the war, and approval for Donald Trump had declined to an all-time low. The March 2026 No Kings protests were the largest civilian protests in American history, and The Economist named the war "America's least popular since polls began". Congress was divided on the issue of a War Powers Resolution, with the House in favor and the Senate opposed. More Americans thought the war was illegal under US and international law than legal.

Public opinion was opposed to the war in 30 countries across Europe, Asia and the Americas (including the US). Opposition to the war was 81% on average. The war led to a worldwide decline in the reputation of the United States and Israel, with the US reputation falling behind that of China in most countries. Israel was the only surveyed country where public opinion supported the war.

According to Reuters, the conflict involving Iran has resulted in increased oil prices, elevated inflation rates, and a subsequent rise in the cost of living within the United States. Furthermore, a majority of voters in 2025 report experiencing a decline in their economic well-being under the administration of President Trump.

Diplomatic efforts

In 2025 and 2026, Iran and the United States began a series of negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement, following a letter from US president Donald Trump to Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, setting a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach an agreement. After the deadline passed without an agreement in June 2025, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, starting the Twelve-Day War. As of June 28, 2026, there were three rounds of talks before the Islamabad talks that led to the Islamabad Memorandum, and two rounds of technical talks.

The first round was held in Oman on April 12, 2025, led by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. A second round of Omani-mediated talks took place in Rome on April 19, 2025, again between Witkoff and Araghchi. This was followed by a third round in Muscat around a week later; an expert-level meeting to develop a framework for a possible nuclear agreement was led by Michael Anton for the US and by Majid Takht-Ravanchi for Iran.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on 19 September, Mohsen Rezaei stated that they had conveyed three conditions to Washington via Qatar—including an end to the war on all fronts, the unfreezing of their assets, and the lifting of the naval blockade—and were awaiting a response from President Trump.

June 2026 Memorandum of Understanding

After concluding that continued hostilities would risk economic calamity, Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on behalf of the United States during a ceremony at the Palace of Versailles on 17 June 2026. The signing followed an earlier, digital signing of the MOU by the foreign ministers of the two principal belligerents. In the MOU, the United States and Iran agreed to suspend hostilities for 60 days and to establish a framework for a permanent peace under which the US would make major financial and political concessions to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The memorandum began to collapse on 7 July 2026, when Iranian forces attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG tanker, setting it ablaze and damaging other ships. Iranian officials told The New York Times that internal inquiries traced the decision to Hossein Taeb, head of the Basij and former Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence agency chief. The United States responded with airstrikes on Iranian territory within a day of the ship attacks, effectively ending the ceasefire and resuming hostilities between the two countries.

Analysis

In the early months of the war, some analysts argued that Iran's ability to preserve the Islamic Republic, strike American bases, and disrupt the Strait of Hormuz showed the limits of American military power. Other analysts cautioned against treating the Islamic Republic's survival as a strategic victory. The US and Israel inflicted severe losses on Iran's conventional capabilities despite Iran's ability to impose costs on American allies. Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argued after the first ceasefire that it was "simply too soon to tell" whether the war had advanced American interests, citing both American military achievements and Iran's use of the Strait as leverage.

Since hostilities resumed in July, analysts have considered the war outcome unresolved. In August, Reuters' columnist Ron Bousso described the conflict as a stalemate in which neither side had shown a convincing strategy for breaking the deadlock.

Donald Trump's threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure have drawn warnings from international law experts that such actions could constitute war crimes under the Rome Statute, and be actionable under universal jurisdiction.