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Economy of Serbia

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  • 9 chapters

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Historical preview

In the decades leading up to World War I, GDP growth in Serbia grew by 0.28% per annum. This was a slower growth rate than Northwestern Europe, leading to a widening economic divergence between Serbia and Western Europe. Prior to WWI, there was extensive growth in Serbia's dominant agricultural sector. Industrial and service sectors remained small.

In the late 1980s, at the beginning of the process of economic transition from a planned economy to a market economy, Serbia's economy had a favorable position in comparison to most of the Eastern Bloc countries, but it was gravely impacted by poor economic decision-making in the 1990s, the Yugoslav Wars, and UN sanctions and trade embargo during the 1990s. The country experienced one of the most extreme hyperinflation episodes in modern history, peaking at a monthly rate of around 313 million percent in January 1994. At the same time, the country experienced a serious "brain drain". There was a severe recession which continued until 1999.

After the overthrow of Slobodan Milošević in 2000, Serbia went through a process of transition to a market-based economy and experienced sustained economic growth. During that period, the Serbian economy grew 4–5% annually, average wages quadrupled, and economic and social opportunities dramatically improved. During the Great Recession, Serbia marked a decline in its economy of 3.1% in 2009, and following years of economic stagnation pre-crisis level of GDP was reached only in 2016.

Since 2014, the country has been in the process of accession negotiations to join the European Union. An IMF Stand-By Arrangement running from 2015 to 2017 supported fiscal consolidation, with general government debt falling from about 70% of GDP in 2015 to approximately 52% by 2019. Real GDP growth averaged 3–4% annually from 2017 to 2019. The COVID-19 recession produced a milder contraction in Serbia than in most European economies, with output declining 0.9% in 2020 and rebounding 7.5% in 2021. The 2021–2023 inflation surge, driven by global energy and food price shocks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, pushed annual inflation to a peak of around 16% in early 2023, prompting the National Bank of Serbia to tighten monetary policy. Growth recovered to 2.5% in 2023 and an estimated 3.9% in 2024.

Foreign direct investment reached record levels, averaging more than €4 billion per year between 2021 and 2024, with major investments by Stellantis (automotive, Kragujevac), Zijin Mining (copper, Bor) and Linglong (tires, Zrenjanin). In July 2024, a free-trade agreement with China entered into force, making Serbia one of the few European countries with comprehensive free-trade arrangements covering both the EU and China. As of 2024, the World Bank classified Serbia as an upper middle income economy, and the European Commission assessed it as "a functioning market economy".

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