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Economy of Venezuela

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Through Developing country, Petroleum and Steel

Venezuela is the 25th largest producer of oil in the world and the 8th largest member of OPEC. Venezuela also manufactures and exports heavy industry products such as steel, aluminum, and cement. Other notable manufacturing includes electronics and automobiles as well as beverages and foodstuffs. Agriculture in Venezuela accounts for approximately 4.7% of GDP, 7.3% of the labor force and at least one-fourth of Venezuela's land area. Venezuela exports rice, corn, fish, tropical fruit, coffee, pork and beef. Venezuela has an estimated US$14.3 trillion worth of natural resources and is not self-sufficient in most areas of agriculture. Exports accounted for 16.7% of GDP and petroleum products accounted for about 95% of those exports.

Since the 1920s, Venezuela has been a rentier state, offering oil as its main export. From the 1950s to the early 1980s, the Venezuelan economy experienced a steady growth that attracted many immigrants, with the nation enjoying the highest standard of living in Latin America. The situation reversed when oil prices collapsed during the 1980s. Hugo Chavez became president in 1999 and implemented a form of socialism (the Bolivarian Revolution) that resulted in the collapse or nationalization of many Venezuelan businesses, and purged the state-run PDVSA oil company, replacing thousands of workers with political supporters with no technical expertise. The Chavez administration also imposed stringent currency controls in 2003 in an attempt to prevent capital flight. These actions resulted in a decline in oil production and exports and a series of stern currency devaluations.

Price controls and expropriation of numerous farmlands and various industries are government policies along with a near-total freeze on any access to foreign currency at reasonable "official" exchange rates. These have resulted in severe shortages in Venezuela and steep price rises of all common goods, including food, water, household products, spare parts, tools and medical supplies; forcing many manufacturers to either cut production or close down, with many ultimately abandoning the country as has been the case with several technological firms and most automobile makers.

Venezuela's economy has been in a state of total economic collapse since 2013. In 2015, Venezuela had over 100% inflation—the highest in the world and the highest in the country's history at that time. According to independent sources, the rate increased to 80,000% at the end of 2018 with Venezuela spiraling into hyperinflation while the poverty rate was nearly 90 percent of the population. On 14 November 2017, credit rating agencies declared that Venezuela was in default with its debt payments, with Standard & Poor's categorizing Venezuela as being in "selective default".

The United States has been Venezuela's most important trading partner despite the strained relations between the two countries. American exports to Venezuela have included machinery, agricultural products, medical instruments and cars. Venezuela is one of the top four suppliers of foreign oil to the United States. About 500 American companies are represented in Venezuela. According to the Central Bank of Venezuela, between 1998 and 2008 the government received around US$325 billion through oil production and exports in general.[17] According to the International Energy Agency (as of August 2015), the production of 2.4 million barrels per day supplied 500,000 barrels to the United States.[18] A report published by Transparencia Venezuela in 2022 estimated that illegal activities in the country made up around 21% of its GDP.

History

1922–1959

After oil was discovered in Venezuela in 1922 during the Maracaibo strike, Venezuela's dictator Juan Vicente Gómez allowed American oil companies to write Venezuela's petroleum law. In 1943, Standard Oil of New Jersey accepted a new agreement in Venezuela based on the 50–50 principle, described as "a landmark event". Even more favorable terms were negotiated in 1945, after a coup brought to power a left-leaning government that included Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonso.

From the 1950s to the early 1980s, the Venezuelan economy, which was buoyed by high oil prices, was one of the strongest and most prosperous in South America. The continuous growth during that period attracted many immigrants.

In 1958, a new government, again including Pérez Alfonso, devised a plan for an international oil cartel, that would become OPEC.

During Pérez Jiménez' dictatorship from 1952 to 1958, Venezuela enjoyed remarkably high GDP growth, so that in the late 1950s Venezuela's real GDP per capita almost reached that of Ireland or West Germany. Albeit, West Germany was still recovering from WW2 destruction of German infrastructure. However, Rómulo Betancourt, president from 1959 to 1964, inherited from 1958 to 1959 onward an enormous internal and external debt caused by rampant public spending. He managed to balance Venezuela's public budget and initiate an agrarian reform.

1960s–1990s

Buoyed by a strong oil sector in the 1960s and 1970s, Venezuela's governments were able to maintain social harmony by spending fairly large amounts on public programs including health care, education, transport and food subsidies. Literacy and welfare programs benefited tremendously from these conditions. The first tenure of Carlos Andrés Pérez from 1974 to 1979 benefited from the 1970s energy crisis, tripling the amount of public spending and nationalizing the oil industry, establishing PDVSA. He also increased government debt significantly, nationalized the iron industry, created new state-owned companies, nationalized the central bank and replaced its board with cabinet members, eliminating the bank's independence as a result. His government was also allowed to establish the first minimum wage and salary increases with an enabling act approved by the National Congress. Pérez was accused of excessive and disorderly public spending. Venezuela's external debt grew from $2 billion in 1972 to $33 billion by 1982.

Venezuela's economic situation was reversed when oil prices collapsed during the 1980s. Luis Herrera Campins was elected just as the oil prices collapsed, with the economy experiencing turmoil throughout his tenure. The economy contracted and inflation levels (consumer price inflation) rose, remaining between 6 and 12% from 1982 to 1986. Policies implemented by Herrera to reduce inflation and reverse increased government spending were not effective, resulting with the election of Jaime Lusinchi in the 1983 Venezuelan general election. The Lusinchi administration continued strict foreign exchange controls and excessive spending while oil prices continued to decrease. Lusinchi focused the nation's funds on paying foreign debtors, sending $15 billion out to international lenders from 1985 to 1988 to tend the remaining $32 billion of debt. By the end of his presidency, the public began to suffer from inflated prices and shortages of basic goods. Carlos Andrés Pérez based his campaign for the 1988 Venezuelan general election in his legacy of abundance during his first presidential period and initially rejected liberalization policies. Venezuela's international reserves were only US$300 million at the time of Pérez' election into the presidency; Pérez decided to respond to the debt, public spending, economic restrictions and rentier state by liberalizing the economy. He announced a technocratic cabinet and a group of economic policies to fix macroeconomic imbalances known as El Gran Viraje (English: The Great Turn), called by detractors as El Paquetazo Económico (English: The Economic Package). Among the policies there was the reduction of fuel subsidies and the increase of public transportation fares by thirty percent (VEB 16 Venezuelan bolívares, or US$0.4). The increase was supposed to be implemented on 1 March 1989, but bus drivers decided to apply the price rise on 27 February, a day before payday in Venezuela. In response, protests and rioting began on the morning of 27 February 1989 in Guarenas, a town near Caracas; a lack of timely intervention by authorities, as the Caracas Metropolitan Police was on a labor strike, led to the protests and rioting quickly spreading to the capital and other towns across the country.

By late 1991, as part of the economic reforms, Carlos Andrés Pérez' administration had sold three banks, a shipyard, two sugar mills, an airline, a telephone company and a cell phone band, receiving a total of US$2,287 million. The most remarkable auction was CANTV's, a telecommunications company, which was sold at the price of US$1,885 million to the consortium composed of American AT&T International, General Telephone Electronic and the Venezuelan Electricidad de Caracas and Banco Mercantil. The privatization ended Venezuela's monopoly over telecommunications and surpassed even the most optimistic predictions, with over US$1,000 million above the base price and US$500 million more than the bid offered by the competition group. By the end of the year, inflation had dropped from 84% in 1989 to 31%, Venezuela's international reserves were now worth US$14,000 million and there was an economic growth of 9% (called as an "Asian growth"), the largest in Latin America at the time. While foreign debtors were repaid and the economy grew, by 1992, the majority of economic benefits were experienced by the upper class while middle to lower classes faced increased poverty and high unemployment rates between ten and forty percent.

Overreliance on oil exports and a fractured political system without parties agreeing on policies caused many of the problems. By the mid-1990s, Venezuela under President Rafael Caldera saw annual inflation rates of 50–60% from 1993 to 1997, with the country suffering a banking crisis. In 1998, the economic crisis had grown even worse. Per capita GDP was at the same level as 1963 (after adjusting 1963 dollar to 1998 value), down a third from its 1978 peak; and the purchasing power of the average salary was a third of its 1978 level.

1999–2013

Hugo Chávez was elected President in December 1998 and took office in February 1999. From 1999 to the end of 2012, when Hugo Chavez health decayed preventing him from fulfilling any presidential duties, the GDP grew from 97.52 billion dollars to 372.59 billion dollars. In the same period, inflation remained stable around 20% year.

From 1999 In 2000, oil prices soared, offering Chávez funds not seen since Venezuela's economic collapse in the 1980s. Chávez implemented economic policies that leaned toward social democracy, utilizing oil revenues to fund social programs. These policies increased Venezuela's economic reliance on high oil prices.

During the first four years of Chávez's presidency, the economy initially grew between 1999 and 2001 but contracted from 2001 to 2003, returning to GDP levels similar to those of 1997. The early decline was influenced by low oil prices and later exacerbated by the events surrounding the 2002 coup attempt and the 2002–2003 general strike. Additional contributing factors included capital flight and reduced foreign investment. GDP decreased from 50.0 trillion bolívares in 1998 to 42.4 trillion bolívares in 2003 (measured in constant 1998 bolívares).

The hardest-hit sectors in the worst recession years (2002–2003) were construction (−55.9%), petroleum (−26.5%), commerce (−23.6%) and manufacturing (−22.5%). The drop in the petroleum sector was caused by adherence to the OPEC quota established in 2002 and the virtual cessation of exports during the PdVSA-led general strike of 2002–2003. The non-petroleum sector of the economy contracted by 6.5% in 2002. The bolívar, which had been suffering from serious inflation and devaluation relative to international standards since the late 1980s, stabilized around 20% inflation.

During Chávez's presidency, inflation was significantly reduced and maintained at an average of around 20%, marking a substantial improvement compared to the late 1980s and the turbulent 1990s, when inflation reached its highest point at 100% in 1996. The inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index, stood at 35.8% in 1998, dropped to a low of 12.5% in 2001, and rose to 31.1% in 2003. In response to pressures on the bolívar, declining international reserves, and the economic impact of the oil industry work stoppage, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank suspended foreign exchange trading on January 23, 2003. Shortly afterward, the government established CADIVI, a currency control board, on February 6, 2003. CADIVI regulated foreign exchange procedures and set the exchange rate at 1,596 bolívares per US dollar for purchases and 1,600 bolívares per US dollar for sales.

The housing market in Venezuela shrunk significantly with developers avoiding Venezuela due to the massive number of companies who have had their property expropriated by the government. According to The Wall Street Journal, Venezuela had the weakest property rights in the world, scoring only 5.0 on a scale of 100, with expropriation without compensation being common. The housing shortage in Venezuela was significant enough that, in 2007, a group of squatters occupied the Centro Financiero Confinanzas, an unfinished economic complex originally intended to represent the country's economic growth.

The Venezuelan economy contracted by 5.8% in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009 and recorded the highest inflation rate in Latin America at 30.5%. President Chávez expressed optimism about Venezuela's recovery, although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Venezuela would be the only country in the region to remain in recession that year. The IMF described Venezuela's economic recovery as "delayed and weak" compared to other countries in the region.

Nevertheless, the Venezuelan economy resumed a growth trend in subsequent years, continuing until 2012. The economic downturn began during Nicolás Maduro's leadership, as Chávez’s health declined and he became increasingly unable to govern effectively.

2013–2020

According to the misery index in 2013, Venezuela ranked as the top spot globally with the highest misery index score. The International Finance Corporation ranked Venezuela one of the lowest countries for doing business with, ranking it 180 of 185 countries for its Doing Business 2013 report with protecting investors and taxes being its worst rankings. In early 2013, the bolívar fuerte was devalued due to growing shortages in Venezuela. The shortages included necessities such as toilet paper, milk and flour. Shortages also affected healthcare in Venezuela, with the University of Caracas Medical Hospital ceasing to perform surgeries due to the lack of supplies in 2014. The Bolivarian government's policies also made it difficult to import drugs and other medical supplies. Due to such complications, many Venezuelans died avoidable deaths with medical professionals having to use limited resources using methods that were replaced decades ago.

In 2014, Venezuela entered an economic recession having its GDP growth decline to −3.0%. Venezuela was placed at the top of the misery index for the second year in a row. The Economist said Venezuela was "probably the world's worst-managed economy". Citibank believed that "the economy has little prospect of improvement" and that the state of the Venezuelan economy was a "disaster". The Doing Business 2014 report by the International Finance Corporation and the World Bank ranked Venezuela one score lower than the previous year, then 181 out of 185. According to Foreign Policy, Venezuela was ranked last in the world on its Base Yield Index due to low returns that investors receive when investing in Venezuela. In a 2014 report titled Scariest Places on the Business Frontiers by Zurich Financial Services and reported by Bloomberg, Venezuela was ranked as the riskiest emerging market in the world. Many companies such as Toyota, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Company, Air Canada, Air Europa, American Airlines, Copa Airlines, TAME, TAP Airlines and United Airlines slowed or stopped operation due to the lack of hard currency in the country, with Venezuela owing such foreign companies billions of dollars. Venezuela also dismantled CADIVI, a government body in charge of currency exchange. CADIVI was known for holding money from the private sector and was suspected to be corrupt.

Venezuela again topped the misery index according to the World Bank in 2015. The IMF predicted in October 2015 an inflation rate of 159% for the year 2015—the highest rate in Venezuelan history and the highest rate in the world—and that the economy would contract by 10%. According to leaked documents from the Central Bank of Venezuela, the country ended 2015 with an inflation rate of 270% and a shortage rate of goods over 70%.

President Nicolás Maduro reorganized his economic cabinet in 2016 with the group mainly consisting of leftist Venezuelan academics. According to Bank of America's investment division Merrill Lynch, Maduro's new cabinet was expected to tighten currency and price controls in the country. Alejandro Werner, the head of IMF's Latin American Department, stated that 2015 figures released by the Central Bank of Venezuela were not accurate and that Venezuela's inflation for 2015 was 275%. Other forecast inflation figures by IMF and Bank of America were 720% and 1,000% in 2016, Analysts believed that the Venezuelan government has been manipulating economic statistics, especially since they did not report adequate data since late 2014. According to economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, the Central Bank of Venezuela delayed the release of statistics and lied about figures much like the Soviet Union did, with Hanke saying that a lie coefficient had to be used to observe Venezuela's economic data.

By 2016, media outlets said that Venezuela was suffering an economic collapse with the IMF saying that it expected it to reach a 500% inflation rate and 10% contraction in the GDP. In December 2016, monthly inflation exceeded 50 percent for the 30th consecutive day, meaning the Venezuelan economy was officially experiencing hyperinflation, making it the 57th country to be added to the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table.

On 25 August 2017, it was reported that new United States sanctions against Venezuela did not ban trading of the country's existing non-government bonds, with the sanctions instead including restrictions intended to block the government's ability to fund itself.

On 26 January 2018, the government ended the protected, subsidized fixed exchange rate mechanism that was highly overvalued as a result of rampant inflation. The National Assembly (led by the opposition) said inflation in 2017 was over 4,000%, a level other independent economists also agreed with. In February, the government launched an oil-backed cryptocurrency called the petro.

Bloomberg's Cafe Con Leche Index calculated the price increase for a cup of coffee to have increased by 718% in the 12 weeks before 18 January 2018, an annualized inflation rate of 448,000%. The finance commission of the National Assembly noted in July 2018 that prices were doubling every 28 days with an annualized inflation rate of 25,000%.

The country was heading for a selective default in 2017. In early 2018, the country was in default, meaning it could not pay its lenders.

On 24 August 2017 U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on the state debt of Venezuela which ban to make transactions with state debt of Venezuela including the participation in debt restructuring. On 13 November 2017 the technical default period ended and Venezuela did not pay coupons on its dollar eurobonds. This caused a cross default on other dollar bonds. On 30 November ISDA committee consisting of 15 biggest banks admitted default on state debt obligations what in its turn entailed payments on CDS. According to Cbonds, nowadays there are 20 international Venezuelan bonds which are recognized in default. The overall amount of defaulted obligations is equal to 36 billion dollars.

2020-present

Almost 82% of Venezuelans live in poverty, with 53% in extreme poverty, unable to buy even basic foodstuffs.

– A UN special reporter said in February 2024 after visiting the country.

Venezuela was “once among South America's wealthiest countries” before the economic meltdown under the Maduro regime.

“The formerly rich petro-state has seen GDP fall by 80% in less than a decade, driving some seven million of its citizens to flee. Most Venezuelans live on just a few dollars a month, with the health care and education systems in total disrepair and biting shortages of electricity and fuel” as of 2024, according to VOA (report from AFP).

A report published by Transparencia Venezuela in 2022 estimated that illegal activities in the country made up around 21% of its GDP. According to the report, drug, oil and gold trafficking, as well as illegal activities in ports and customs had generated over 9.4 billion dollars for organized crime protected by corrupt officials. In 2021, gold extraction generated around 2.3 billion dollars, of which the State received only 25%.

By 2023, the economic situation of Venezuela improved, with the economy growing by 15% and extreme poverty rates decreasing, thanks to a liberalized economy and more access to the United States dollar. However, inequality is high, with wealthy Venezuelans making more than 70 times the poorest ones. In 2024 inflation cooled to 48%, the lowest in a decade, though in 2025 it surged again to 475%. In 2026, the IMF restored its relations with Venezuela, after a 7 year suspension over the legitimacy of Venezuelan government in 2019 and concern over unreliable economic data. The renewed relations comes after the last political shifts in the country which allows Venezuela to reenter the international financial system.

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