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Great Recession in Europe

European economic recession

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Through Europe and Derivative (finance)

Eurozone

The Eurozone recession has been dated from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009. In the eurozone as a whole, industrial production fell 1.9% in May 2008, the sharpest one-month decline for the region since the Black Wednesday exchange rate crisis in 1992. European car sales fell 7.8% in May compared with a year earlier. Retail sales fell by 0.6% in June from the May level and by 3.1% from June in the previous year. Germany was the only country out of the four biggest economies in the eurozone to register an increase of activity in July though the increase was sharply down. Economic analysts from RBS and Capital Economics say the decline raises the risk of the eurozone entering a recession in 2008. In the second quarter, the eurozone's economy was reported to have declined by 0.2%.

Ireland

The global recession was first seen in Europe, as Ireland was the first country to fall into recession from Q2-Q3 2007 – followed by temporary growth in Q4 2007 – and then a two-year-long recession. Republic of Ireland in the first quarter of 2008 reported a contraction in GDP of 1.5 percent, its first economic contraction since it began reporting by quarter and first recorded contraction since 1983. However, Ireland's Central Statistics Office reported growth in GNP of about 0.8 percent, Ireland's government considers GNP a better measure of the economy. Analysts have predicted Ireland's economy will contract further in the rest of the year. A report from NCB stockbrokers predicts gross national product will fall by 1 percent in 2008 and by 0.4 percent in 2009 due to a decline in multi-nationals hit by the slowdown of the global economy. An economist from NCB said non-residential investment would fall by 5 percent in 2008 and by 12 percent in 2009.

Ireland's GDP saw a contraction in the second quarter by 0.5 percent, making Ireland the first member of the eurozone to enter a recession. The government is being advised by Merrill Lynch, the American broker that ran out of capital in September 2008. In January 2009 it was forced to nationalise its third largest bank, Anglo Irish Bank and to announce recapitalisation of its top two banks, AIB and Bank of Ireland. In February 2009, the government announced record levels of unemployment in the country, with its highest monthly increase in 40 years and 1,500 people being laid off daily. Ireland exited the recession in the 3rd quarter of 2009, posting a 0.3 percent growth in its economy.

Spain

Spain's Martinsa-Fadesa, a construction company, declared bankruptcy after failing to refinance a debt of €5.1 billion. The two banks with most exposure to Martinsa-Fadesa were reportedly Caja Madrid, at €900m, and Banco Popular Español, at €400m. Spain's finance minister Pedro Solbes said it would not bail out the company. In the second quarter, house prices in Spain fell 20 percent. In Castilla–La Mancha some 69 percent of all houses built over the past three years are still unsold. Deutsche Bank said it expects a 35 percent fall in real house prices by 2011. Spain's premier, Jose Luis Zapatero, blamed the European Central Bank for making matters worse by raising interest rates. More than 98 percent of home loans in Spain are priced off floating rates linked to Euribor, which has risen 145 basis points since August. Housing accounts for over 10 percent of Spain's economy. The Bank of Spain is concerned about the health of smaller regional lenders with heavy exposure to the mortgage market.

Although Spain has avoided recession in the first half of 2008, unemployment in the country has risen by 425,000 over 2007–2008, reaching 9.9 percent. Car sales in Spain fell 31 percent in May. Spain's factory output slumped 5.5 percent in May 2008. The country's business lobby Circulo de Empresarios warned of a "high probability" that Spain's economy would fall into recession in the second half of 2008 due to the housing collapse. Spain had a 7.9 percent decline in retail sales in June compared to the previous year, the largest drop since Spain began registering the results and the seventh consecutive monthly decline. This included a 17.9 percent drop in retail sales of household goods. In Spain food sales in the month of June fell by 6.8 percent.

Morgan Stanley issued a major alert on the health of Spanish banks and the Spanish economy in a report, saying, "A momentous economic slowdown is now under way. We believe the deterioration in Spain is just in the beginning stages. The bulk of the pain will be suffered in 2009." Morgan Stanley also warned there was 40 percent chance of a 0.5 percent contraction of the Spanish economy in 2009, with a risk of an even more extreme 1.4 percent contraction in 2009. According to Spanish automobile manufacturers' association ANFAC new car sales fell 27.5 percent in July from the same time in 2007, the third consecutive monthly drop of over 20 percent. Spain's government forecast the unemployment rate would rise to 10.4 percent in 2008 and to 12.5 percent in 2009. Spain's second largest bank BBVA predicted the unemployment rate could reach 14 percent in 2009. Spain's Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector in July fell to a new low suggesting a deep recession. In the second quarter Spain's economy grew by 0.1 percent, the lowest gain in 15 years.

As of December 2009, The Spanish government forecasted the unemployment rate would rise to 20 percent in 2009. It is predicted to be a 25 percent rate, due to the way the tally is carried out by the government. According to Spain's Finance Minister, "Spain faces its deepest recession in half a century".

Germany

In Germany officials had warned the economy could contract by as much as 1.5 percent in the second quarter because of declining export orders. The economy of Germany indeed contracted in both the second and third quarters putting Germany now in a technical recession. Although the idea was fought for a moment Angela Merkel and the German government approved a €50 billion strong rescue plan to protect the German economy of the crisis, making of it Western Europe's biggest rescue plan for now in this crisis.

Germany's industrial output was down 2.4 percent in May, the fastest rate for a decade. Orders have now fallen for six months in a row, the worst run since the early 1990s. The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce warned of up to 200,000 job losses in coming months. German retails sales fell 1.4 percent in June more than any expectations. The German economy declined by 0.5 percent in the second quarter.

Greece

In 2012 Greece entered its 5th year of recession. In 2011 Greece's GDP shrunk by a further 6.8%, leaving total economic output now 16% below the pre-crisis peak. Eurostat's current forecasts also show Greece's economy declining further in 2012, by an estimated 4.4%

Italy

In Italy, Fiat announced plant closures and temporary layoffs at factories in Turin, Melfi and Sicily. Car sales in Italy have fallen by almost 20 percent over each of the past two months. Italy's car workers' union said; "The situation is evidently more serious than had been understood." On 10 July 2008 economic think tank ISAE lowered its growth forecast for Italy to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent and cut the 2009 outlook to 0.7 percent from 1.2 percent. Analysts have predicted Italy had entered a recession in the second quarter or would enter one by the end of the year with business confidence at its lowest levels since the 11 September attacks. Italy's economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008.

The unemployment rate rose from 5.7% in April 2007 to 8.6% in April 2010. Italy was mostly isolated from the effects of the Great Recession of 2008–2009 as their banking system did not engage in risky investment behavior and was sound. However, the effects of the recession wiped out the strict budget discipline that Italy had painstakingly kept since the Debt Crisis of 1992, and lead to another Italian sovereign debt crisis in 2011. Italy briefly saw growth from 2009 to 2011, but from 2011 to 2013 suffered a recession that, while shallower than the 2008–2009 downturn, was longer and in many ways far worse, as unemployment skyrocketed 7.9% in April 2011 to 13.0% in November 2014.

France and the Benelux countries

Other eurozone members saw a decline in their economies in the second quarter as well; France by 0.3 percent, Finland by 0.2 percent while the Netherlands showed zero growth in the second quarter. However the final estimates released by the INSEE, France's statistical agency, showed the French economy grew by 0.14 percent during the third quarter thus barely avoiding a technical recession. In the first quarter of 2009, France fell into recession, the last developed nation in Europe to do so.

In order to fight the economic crisis, French president Nicolas Sarkozy announced a €26 billion rescue plan which will amount to an additional €15.5 billion in addition to the normal budget for 2009 and will increase France's public deficit to 4%. It is similar, to an extent, to Barack Obama's proposal to stimulate the U.S. economy by investing in the nation's vital infrastructure. Further proposals include tax rebates for small businesses as well as easing restrictions on building permits and government contracts particularly with construction and civil engineering.

This is due to the "prime à la casse" program where buyers received a rebate of up to €1,000 for scrapping their polluting old vehicles and purchasing new environmentally friendly/ fuel efficient cars. As a consequence, car sales in France in December 2008 were 30% higher than in December 2007 although on the total 2008 year the sales was down 0.7%. Because the French new cars market fared better than most as well as increased sales in South America, French brands, particularly Renault, now have bigger shares of the world's market despite selling fewer cars in 2008 than in 2007. Another highly exposed industry is naval construction, an order concerning a packet boat for NCL was already cancelled.

In order to fill the blank in the construction planning the French government is expected to order soon a third Mistral BPC, as well as smaller ships, for the French navy to DCNS. This is part of the Sarkozy's rescue plan. DCNS also won its biggest export contract ever when the Brazilian government placed a €7 billion large order to the company. The order concerns four Scorpène-class submarines with a conventional propulsion and a fifth one with a nuclear propulsion, as well as a naval shipyard and a naval base.

The French cooperative bank Caisse d'Epargne suffered a €600 million derivatives trading loss in October 2008, which it blamed partly on the high market volatility at the time. The group of employees responsible for making the unauthorised trades were dismissed. French banks have also been affected to some point by the fraud set by Bernard Madoff. Most importantly Natixis, an investment bank, potentially lost €450 million in the process and BNP Paribas could lose €350 million. Neither Natixis or BNP Paribas directly invested in Madoff's but through bonds issued by the US treasury they could face such loses. It is to be determined if all of these are effectively lost, which ones can be recovered and what can be saved by legal procedures. Other groups like AXA, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole and Groupama could also face loses to some point.

On 28 September 2008, Dutch-Belgian bank Fortis was partially nationalized with a cash infusion from the Benelux countries amounting to €11.2 billion. Fortis' troubles started in the beginning of the year with an announcement that it faced around $1.5bn of losses in the American sub-prime catastrophe. In June, the company announced a selloff of assets to raise €5 bn to improve the liquidity of the organisation. This, however, proved insufficient. On 6 October 2008, it was announced the French bank BNP Paribas would take over 75 percent of Fortis' activities in Belgium, and 66 percent in Luxembourg, in exchange for the Belgian government becoming the new group's major shareholder.

However the Belgian government was accused of pressuring shareholders and collapsed over the controversy thus delaying the operation. A new proposition was made on 30 January 2009 with slightly different terms. BNP Paribas would take over 75% of Fortis' banking activities in Belgium and only 10% of the insurance activities in return of what the Belgian government would take 11.7% of BNP Paribas. This agreement would come with a warranty from the Belgian government that it would cover up to €5 billion if more toxic assets were to be discovered. On 30 September 2008 the Belgian, French and Luxembourg governments said they would invest €6.4bn into keeping Dexia, Belgium's second largest bank, afloat.

In May 2008 industrial output fell in the Netherlands by 6 percent.

On 19 March 2009, the INSEE announced worse contraction than previously said, predicting a −2.9% set back in growth, and a jobless rate up to 8.8 as soon as June 2009.

Portugal

In the summer of 2010, Moody's Investors Service cut Portugal's sovereign bond rating down two notches from an Aa2 to an A1. Due to spending on economic stimuli, Portugal's debt had increased sharply compared to the gross domestic product. Moody noted that the rising debt would weigh heavily on the government's short-term finances. Earlier in the year, Portugal was one of the countries identified in the European sovereign-debt crisis as concern spread over increasing government deficit and debt levels in certain countries.

Also in 2010, the country reached a record high unemployment rate of nearly 11%, a figure not seen for over two decades, while the number of public servants remained very high.

International financial markets compelled the Portuguese Government led by Prime Minister José Sócrates, to make radical changes in economic policy, like other European governments had done before. Thus, in September 2010, the Portuguese Government announced a fresh austerity package following other Eurozone partners, through a series of tax hikes and salary cuts for public servants. In 2009, the deficit had been 9.4 percent, one of the highest in the Eurozone and way above the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact three percent limit.

In November 2010, risk premiums on Portuguese bonds hit euro lifetime highs as investors and creditors worried that the country would fail to reign in its budget deficit and debt. The yield on the country's 10-year government bonds reached 7 percent – a level the Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos had previously said would require the country to seek financial help from international institutions.

A report published in January 2011 by the Diário de Notícias, a leading Portuguese newspaper, demonstrated that in the period between the Carnation Revolution in 1974 and 2010, the democratic Portuguese Republic governments had encouraged over expenditure and investment bubbles through unclear public-private partnerships. This had funded numerous ineffective and unnecessary external consultancy and advising committees and firms, allowed considerable slippage in state-managed public works, inflated top management and head officers' bonuses and wages, causing a persistent and lasting recruitment policy that has boosted the number of redundant public servants. The economy has also been damaged by risky credit, public debt creation and mismanaged European structural and cohesion funds for almost four decades. Apparently, the Prime Minister Sócrates's cabinet was not able to forecast or prevent any of this when symptoms first appeared in 2005, and later was incapable of doing anything to ameliorate the situation when the country was on the verge of bankruptcy in 2011.

On 23 March 2011, José Sócrates resigned following passage of a no confidence motion sponsored by all five opposition parties in parliament over spending cuts and tax increases.

On 6 April 2011, the resigning Prime Minister announced on the television that the country, facing a status of bankruptcy, would request financial assistance to the IMF (at the time managed by Dominique Strauss-Kahn) and the European Financial Stability Facility, like Greece and the Republic of Ireland had done before.

In order to accomplish the European Union/IMF-led rescue plan for Portugal's sovereign debt crisis, in July and August 2011, the new government led by Pedro Passos Coelho announced it was going to cut on state spending and increase austerity measures, including public servant wage cuts and additional tax increases.

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