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Stationary process

Class of stochastic process

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Through Mathematics, Statistics and Stochastic process

A common cause of non-stationarity is a trend in the mean, which can be due to either a unit root or a deterministic trend. In the case of a unit root, stochastic shocks have permanent effects, and the process is not mean-reverting. With a deterministic trend, the process is called trend-stationary, and shocks have only transitory effects, with the variable tending towards a deterministically evolving mean. A trend-stationary process is not strictly stationary but can be made stationary by removing the trend. Similarly, processes with unit roots can be made stationary through differencing.

Another type of non-stationary process, distinct from those with trends, is a cyclostationary process, which exhibits cyclical variations over time.

Strict stationarity, as defined above, can be too restrictive for many applications. Therefore, other forms of stationarity, such as wide-sense stationarity or ⁠N⁠th-order stationarity, are often used. The definitions for different kinds of stationarity are not consistent among different authors (see § Other terminology).

Strict-sense stationarity

Definition

Formally, let {Xt} be a stochastic process and let FX(xt1+τ,…,xtn+τ) represent the cumulative distribution function of the unconditional (i.e., with no reference to any particular starting value) joint distribution of {Xt} at times ⁠t1+τ,…,tn+τ⁠. Then, {Xt} is said to be strictly stationary, strongly stationary or strict-sense stationary if

Since τ does not affect ⁠FX(⋅)⁠, FX is independent of time.

Examples

White noise is the simplest example of a stationary process.

An example of a discrete-time stationary process where the sample space is also discrete (so that the random variable may take one of ⁠N⁠ possible values) is a Bernoulli scheme. Other examples of a discrete-time stationary process with continuous sample space include some autoregressive and moving average processes that are both subsets of the autoregressive moving average model. Models with a non-trivial autoregressive component may be either stationary or non-stationary, depending on the parameter values, and important non-stationary special cases are where unit roots exist in the model.

Example 1

Let Y be any scalar random variable, and define a time-series {Xt} by

Xt=Y for all t.

Then {Xt} is a stationary time series, for which realisations consist of a series of constant values, with a different constant value for each realisation. A law of large numbers does not apply on this case, as the limiting value of an average from a single realisation takes the random value determined by ⁠Y⁠, rather than taking the expected value of ⁠Y⁠.

The time average of Xt does not converge since the process is not ergodic.

Example 2

As a further example of a stationary process for which any single realisation has an apparently noise-free structure, let Y have a uniform distribution on [0,2π] and define the time series {Xt} by

Xt=cos⁡(t+Y) for t∈R.

Then {Xt} is strictly stationary since (⁠(t+Y)⁠ modulo ⁠2π⁠) follows the same uniform distribution as Y for any ⁠t⁠.

Example 3

Keep in mind that a weakly white noise is not necessarily strictly stationary. Let ω be a random variable uniformly distributed in the interval (0,2π) and define the time series {zt} by

zt=cos⁡(tω)(t=1,2,...)

Then

E(zt)=12π∫02πcos⁡(tω)dω=0,Var⁡(zt)=12π∫02πcos2⁡(tω)dω=1/2,Cov⁡(zt,zj)=12π∫02πcos⁡(tω)cos⁡(jω)dω=0∀t≠j.

So {zt} is a white noise in the weak sense (the mean and cross-covariances are zero, and the variances are all the same), however it is not strictly stationary.

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