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Islam in Iran

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Through Afghanistan

Between the 7th and 15th centuries, Sunni Islam was the dominant sect in Iran. In the early 16th century, the Safavid dynasty established Twelver Shia Islam as the state religion through state-sponsored conversion campaigns, transforming Iran into a predominantly Shia country. Over the following centuries, Shia Islam became closely intertwined with Iranian identity and political culture.

Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iran has been governed as an Islamic republic based on the doctrine of Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (velayat-e faqih), with Shia Islam and the Ja'fari school designated as the official religion and basis of the legal system. Iran is today a predominantly Shia Muslim country, with Sunni Muslim minorities and smaller non-Muslim communities.

Western estimates of adherence

According to an October 2024 update to Britannica.com by scholars at the Universities of Cambridge and Utah, as of the date of their source data, Muslims accounted for 99.6% of the total population of Iran and comparable older numbers and somewhat discrepant more recent numbers, at CIA.gov—with the "vast majority... [stated as being] of the Ithnā ʿAsharī, or Twelver, Shiʿi branch".

The Iranian government's 2016 census purportedly presents 99% of the Iranian population as Muslim, and 80% of this figure is composed of Twelver Shias. Approximately 7% of Iranians are Sunnis. According to scholars at the Universities of Cambridge and Utah, the country's "Kurds and Turkmen are predominantly Sunni Muslims", with Iran's Arab population being split between "Sunni and Shiʿi" (Shia). Other sources note that this smaller percentage comprises the country's ethnic minorities, the Kurds, Turkmens, and Arabs, as well as Achomi Persians, Khorasani Persians, and Baloch.

According to the 2020 Wave 7 World Values Survey, 96.6% of Iranians identify as Muslims.

GAMAAN surveys

However, a report by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN) in the same year showed a sharp decline in religiosity in the country, as only 40% of Iranian respondents identified as Muslims. Subsequent GAMAAN surveys in 2022 showed that, 38% to 56% identified as Shia Muslims, 5% identified as Sunni Muslims, and roughly a quarter of were susceptible to a form of deism—that is, belief in God without identifying as religious. In all GAMAAN surveys, 7% to 10% of Iranian respondents identified as atheists.

However, even for opponents of the Islamic Republic the GAMAAN surveys have been the object methodological criticisms, including online and snowball-sampling surveys, focus on the use of non-probability, self-selected samples recruited through social media, which critics argue introduce systematic bias and limit representativeness. Weighting procedures are considered insufficient to correct for these structural sampling biases. Additional concerns include coverage error stemming from unequal internet access, disproportionately excluding rural, elderly, and lower-income populations, as well as limited transparency regarding raw data, recruitment methods, and protections against duplicate or automated responses, which constrains independent verification and replicability.

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