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Economy of New Zealand

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Through Gross domestic product, Globalization and China

New Zealand's diverse economy is made up of various types of informal and formal organisations, divided between the public and private sectors. It has a sizeable service sector, accounting for 73% of all GDP activity as of 2024. As a large island nation New Zealand has abundant natural resources and mineral wealth. Prominent manufacturing industries include aluminium production, food processing, metal fabrication, wood and paper products. Goods-producing industries accounted for 20% of GDP as of 2024. The primary sector continues to dominate New Zealand's exports, despite accounting for only 7% of GDP as of 2024. The information technology sector is growing rapidly.

The major capital market is the New Zealand Exchange (NZX). As of February 2023, NZX had a total of 338 listed securities, equity, debt and funds with a combined market capitalisation of NZD $226 billion. New Zealand's currency, the New Zealand dollar, also circulates in four Pacific Island territories. The New Zealand dollar is the 10th-most traded currency in the world.

History

For many years New Zealand's economy was built on a narrow range of agricultural products, such as wool, meat and dairy. These products became New Zealand's staple and most valuable exports, underpinning the success of the economy, from the 1850s until the 1970s. For example, from 1920 to the late 1930s, the dairy export quota was usually around 35% of New Zealand's total exports, and in some years made up almost 45%. Due to the high demand for these primary products, manifested by the New Zealand wool boom of 1951, New Zealand had one of the highest standards of living in the world for 70 years.

In the 1960s, prices for these traditional exports declined, and in 1973 New Zealand lost its preferential trading position with the United Kingdom when the latter joined the European Economic Community. Partly as a result, from 1970 to 1990, the relative New Zealand GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power declined from about 115% of the OECD average to 80%.

Between 1984 and 1993, New Zealand changed from a somewhat closed and centrally controlled economy to one of the most open economies in the OECD. In a process often referred to in New Zealand as Rogernomics, successive governments introduced policies which dramatically liberalised the economy.

In 2005, the World Bank praised New Zealand as the most business-friendly country in the world. The economy diversified and by 2008, tourism had become the single biggest generator of foreign exchange.

Early years

Prior to European settlement and colonisation of New Zealand, Māori had a subsistence economy, the basic economic unit of which was the sub-tribe or hapū in which labour was divided. From the 1790s, the waters around New Zealand were visited by British, French and American whaling, sealing and trading ships. Their crews traded European goods, including guns and metal tools, for Māori food, water, wood, flax and sex. Their increasing lawlessness and plans for formal settlement by the New Zealand Company were two of the drivers behind the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi in 1840, which established New Zealand as a colony. Settlers continued to be dependent on Māori for food until the 1860s. From then immigrants became self-sufficient in farming, and started quarrying a variety of minerals including gold, which was discovered at Gabriel's Gully in Central Otago, leading to the Otago gold rush in 1861. Settlements flourished in areas where these quarries were established. In the 1880s, Dunedin became the richest city in the country largely on the back of investments from the gold rush.

Sheep farming began in the Wairarapa but soon spread up and down the east coast from Southland to the East Cape once rudimentary roads and transport became available. Much of the land used for farming was taken or leased from Māori. Sheep numbers grew quickly and by the mid-1850s, there were already a million sheep in New Zealand; by the early 1870s, there were 10 million. Wool became the first staple export, initially exported from the Wellington settlement in the late 1850s, although unrefrigerated meat and dairy products were exported as far as Australia.

In the 1870s, Julius Vogel was periodically both colonial treasurer and premier. He viewed New Zealand as a "Britain of the South Seas" and began the development of infrastructure in New Zealand investing heavily in roads, railways, telegraphs and bridges funded by public borrowing. Progress slowed after the collapse of the City of Glasgow Bank in 1878 which led to a contraction in credit from London, the centre of the world's financial system at the time. Economic activity was depressed for some years afterwards, until refrigeration was introduced in 1882. This enabled New Zealand to start exporting meat and other frozen products to the United Kingdom. Refrigeration transformed and shaped the development of the economy but, in the process, established New Zealand's economic dependence on Britain.

The success of refrigeration was directly related to the growth and development of farming in the country. In the 19th century, the bulk of economic activity was in the South Island of New Zealand. From around 1900, dairy farming became increasingly viable in areas which were less suitable for sheep, particularly in Northland, the Waikato and Taranaki. As dairying developed, the North Island slowly became more important to the economy. Britain became the sole market for meat and animal products in New Zealand, owing to the increase in its land cultivation and farming. The dairy farming can therefore be seen as a response to the powerful market demands in Europe, transforming not only New Zealand's countryside, economy and production techniques, but also causing migration in order to create the needed supply of dairy farming.

20th century

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was established as New Zealand's central bank on 1 August 1934. Up until that time New Zealand's monetary policy had been set in the United Kingdom, and the New Zealand Pound was issued by private banks. A separate central bank gave New Zealand's government control of monetary policy for the first time, although New Zealand remained part of the sterling area by pegging its pound to the British pound sterling until the introduction of the New Zealand dollar in 1967, after which the dollar was instead pegged to the United States dollar, before being floated in 1985.

By the mid-20th century, pastoral-farming products made up more than 90% of New Zealand's exports, 65% of which was going to Britain in the 1950s. As a former colony, the United Kingdom provided New Zealand with preferential trade quotas. This also enabled New Zealand to impose high tariffs on imported goods from other countries. Tough import controls gave local manufacturers the ability to produce similar products locally, broaden the base of jobs available in New Zealand and still compete against higher priced imports.

This prosperity continued up to 1955 at which point Britain started phasing out preferential quotas. From then on, what New Zealand received was dictated by the free market. As a result, during the 1950s and 1960s the country's standard of living began to slip as the export sector was no longer able to pay for the level of imported goods required to meet the country's growing consumerism.

Britain applied to join the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1961, but was vetoed by the French. The government of Keith Holyoake reacted by attempting to diversify New Zealand's export markets, signing the first free trade agreement (Australia New Zealand Free Trade Agreement) in 1965, and opening new diplomatic posts in Hong Kong, Jakarta, Saigon, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Britain applied again to join the EEC in 1967, and entered into negotiations for membership in 1970. Holyoake's deputy and successor, Jack Marshall, (briefly Prime Minister in 1972) negotiated continued access for New Zealand exports to the United Kingdom under the so-called "Luxembourg Agreement".

Britain gained full membership of the EEC on 1 January 1973, and all trade agreements with New Zealand came to an end, except the Luxembourg Agreement. By the end of that year, only 26.8% of New Zealand's exports were to Britain. This had a significant effect on the standard of living. In 1953, New Zealand had the third highest standard in the world. By 1978, it had dropped to 22nd place.

Having lost unrestricted access to its traditional market, New Zealand continued to search for alternative export markets and diversify its economy. The Government of Norman Kirk, who succeeded Marshall, put greater emphasis on expanding New Zealand's trade, especially with South East Asia. Following the Yom Kippur War in October 1973, an oil embargo was put in place by the Middle Eastern oil exporters, leading to the 1973 oil crisis. This compounded New Zealand's dire economic situation further. Inflation greatly increased as the cost of transport and imported goods soared, causing standards of living to decline.

Think Big

Following the 1979 energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution of that year, Robert Muldoon, the prime minister between 1975 and 1984, instituted an economic strategy known as Think Big. Large scale industrial plants were established based on New Zealand's abundant natural gas. A new range of products for export such as ammonia, urea fertiliser, methanol and petrol were produced and with greater use of electricity (with the electrification of the North Island Main Trunk railway) with the goal that this would reduce New Zealand's dependence on oil imports.

Other projects included the Clyde Dam on the Clutha River, which was built to meet a growing demand for electricity, and the expansion of the New Zealand Steel plant at Glenbrook.

The Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter, which opened in 1971, was also upgraded as part of the Think Big strategy and now brings in approximately NZ$1 billion in exports every year.

Most of these projects turned out to be ill-timed as they came on line at the same time as oil prices dropped during the 1980s oil glut. The price of crude went from more than US$90 a barrel in 1980, to about US$30 a few years later. Because these Think Big projects required massive borrowing to get started, public debt soared from $4.2 billion in 1975 when Muldoon became prime minister to $21.9 billion when he left office nine years later. Inflation remained rampant, averaging 11% in the 1980s. Once Labour came to power in 1984, many of these projects were sold to private industry as part of a wider sale of state-assets.

The Muldoon Government did, however, make some moves towards deregulation. For example, in 1982 it removed the transport licensing restrictions on road carriers carting goods more than 150 km, and turned the Railways Department into a statutory corporation.

Rogernomics

Between 1984 and 1993, New Zealand underwent radical economic reform, moving from what had probably been the most protected, regulated and state-dominated system of any capitalist democracy to an extreme position at the open, competitive, free-market end of the spectrum.

The Fourth Labour government, elected in July 1984, moved away from government intervention in the economy and allowed free market mechanisms to dominate. These reforms became known as "Rogernomics", named after minister of finance from 1984 to 1988, Roger Douglas. The changes included making the Reserve Bank independent of political decisions; performance contracts for senior civil servants; public sector finance reform based on accrual accounting; tax neutrality; subsidy-free agriculture; and industry-neutral competition regulation. Government subsidies including agricultural subsidies were eliminated; import regulations were loosened up; the exchange rate was floated; and controls on interest rates, wages, and prices were removed; and personal rates of taxation were reduced. Tight monetary policy and major efforts to reduce the government budget deficit brought the inflation rate down from an annual rate of more than 18% in 1987. The deregulation of government-owned enterprises in the 1980s and 1990s reduced government's role in the economy and permitted the retirement of some public debt.

The new Government was faced with an exchange rate crisis the day after it was elected. Speculators expected the change of government to result in a 20% devaluation of the New Zealand dollar, which led to the 1984 New Zealand constitutional crisis due to Muldoon's refusal to devalue, worsening the currency crisis further. As a result, the dollar was floated on 4 March 1985, allowing for the value of the dollar to change with the market. Prior to the dollar being floated, the dollar was pegged against a basket of currencies.

Financial markets were deregulated and tariffs on imported goods lowered and phased out. At the same time subsidies to many industries, notably agriculture, were removed or significantly reduced. Income and company taxes were reduced and the top marginal tax rate was reduced from 66% to 33%. These were replaced by a comprehensive tax on goods and services (GST) initially set at 10%, then increased to 12.5% in 1989 and to 15% in 2010. A surtax on universal superannuation was also introduced. Many government departments were corporatised, and from 1 April 1987 became State owned enterprises, required to make a profit. The new corporations shed thousands of jobs adding to unemployment; Electricity Corporation 3,000; Coal Corporation 4,000; Forestry Corporation 5,000; New Zealand Post 8,000.

The wage and price freeze of the early eighties coupled with the removal of financial restrictions and a lack of investment opportunities, led to a speculative bubble on New Zealand's sharemarket, sharemarket crash of 1987, in which New Zealand's sharemarket shed 60% from its 1987 peak, and taking several years to recover.

Inflation continued to be a major problem afflicting the New Zealand economy. Between 1985 and 1992, inflation averaged 9% per year and the economy was in recession. The unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 11%, New Zealand's credit rating dropped twice, and foreign debt quadrupled. In 1989 the Reserve Bank Act 1989 was passed, creating strict monetary policy under the sole control of the Reserve Bank Governor. From then on the Reserve Bank focused on keeping inflation low and stable, using the Official Cash Rate (OCR) – the price of borrowing money in New Zealand – as its primary means to do so. As a result, inflation rates fell to an average of 2.5% in the 1990s, compared to 12% in the 1970s. However, the tightening of monetary policy contributed to rising unemployment in the early 1990s.

The Labour Party was greatly divided over Rogernomics, especially following the 1987 sharemarket crash and its effect on the economy, which slumped along with the rest of the world into recession in the early 1990s. The National Party was returned to power at the 1990 general election and Ruth Richardson became minister of finance under Prime Minister Jim Bolger. The new Government was again thrown a major economic challenge, with the then state-owned Bank of New Zealand needing a bail-out to stay operational.

Richardson's first budget in 1991, nicknamed the 'Mother of all Budgets', attempted to address constant fiscal deficits and borrowing by cutting state spending. Unemployment and social welfare benefits were cut and 'market rents' were introduced for state houses – in some cases tripling the rents of low-income people. Richardson also introduced user-pays requirements in hospitals and schools. These reforms became known derisively as Ruthanasia.

By this time, New Zealand's economy faced serious social problems; the number of New Zealanders estimated to be living in poverty grew by at least 35% between 1989 and 1992; and the economic benefits of privatisation have been questioned. Gross domestic product per capita stagnated between 1986–87 and 1993–94, and by March 1992 unemployment rose to 11.1% Between 1985 and 1992, New Zealand's economy grew by 4.7% during the same period in which the average OECD nation grew by 28.2%. From 1984 to 1993 inflation averaged 9% per year, New Zealand's credit rating dropped twice, and foreign debt quadrupled. Between 1986 and 1993, the unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 11%.

Deregulation also created a business-friendly regulatory framework which has benefited those able to take advantage of it. A 2008 survey in The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal ranked New Zealand 99.9% in "Business freedom", and 80% overall in "Economic freedom", noting that it takes, on average, only 12 days to establish a business in New Zealand, compared with a worldwide average of 43 days.

Deregulation has also been blamed for other significant negative effects. One of these was the leaky homes crisis, whereby the loosening up of building standards (in the expectation that market forces would assure quality) led to many thousands of severely deficient buildings, mostly residential homes and apartments, being constructed over a period of a decade. The costs of fixing the damage has been estimated at over NZ$11 billion (as at 2009).

21st century

Unemployment continued to fall from 1993 to 1994 fiscal year, until the onset of the 1997 Asian financial crisis again pushed the rate higher. By 2016 the unemployment rate decreased to 5.3 percent, the lowest level in 7 years.

Between 2000 and 2007, the New Zealand economy expanded by an average of 3.5% a year driven primarily by private consumption and the buoyant housing market. During this period, inflation averaged only 2.6% a year, within the Reserve Bank's target range of 1% to 3%. However, in early 2008 the economy entered recession, before the effects of the Great Recession set in later that year. A drought over the 2007/08 summer led to lower production of dairy products in the first half of 2008. Domestic activity slowed sharply over 2008 as high fuel and food prices dampened domestic consumption, while high interest rates and falling house prices drove a rapid decline in residential investment.

Around the world instability was developing in the finance sector. This reached a peak in September 2008 when the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers sparked the 2008 financial crisis.

Finance company collapses (2006–2012)

During the 2008 financial crisis, business and consumer confidence in New Zealand plummeted as dozens of finance companies collapsed. To try and stop a flight of funds from New Zealand institutions to those in Australia, the Government established the Crown Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme to cover depositors funds in the event that a bank or finance company went broke. This protected some investors but nevertheless, at least 67 finance companies collapsed within a short period of time. The largest of these was South Canterbury Finance which cost taxpayers NZ$1.58 billion when the company collapsed in August 2010. The directors of many of these finance companies were subsequently investigated for fraud and some high-profile directors went to prison.

In an attempt to stimulate the economy, the Reserve Bank lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from a high of 8.25% (July 2008) to an all-time low of 2.5% at the end of April 2009.

Fortunately for New Zealand, the recession was relatively shallow compared to many other nations in the OECD, it was sixth least affected out of the 34 member nations with negative real GDP growth totalling 3.5%. In 2009 the economy picked up, led by strong demand from major trading partners Australia and China, and historically high prices for New Zealand's dairy and log exports. In 2010 the GDP grew by a modest 1.6%, but over the next couple of years economic activity continued to improve, driven by the rebuild in Canterbury after the Christchurch earthquakes and recovery in domestic demand. Through 2011, global conditions deteriorated and the terms of trade eased off their 2011 peak, continuing to moderate until September 2012.

"Rock star" economy

In 2013, the economy grew 3.3%. HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham, was so impressed that he predicted New Zealand's growth would outpace most of its peers, and he described New Zealand as the "rock star economy of 2014". Another financial commentator said the New Zealand dollar was the "hottest" currency of 2014. Only three months later, the New Zealand Productivity Commission expressed concern about low living standards and problems affecting the long-term drivers of growth. Paul Conway, Director of Economics and Research at the Productivity Commission, wrote: "New Zealand's broad policy settings should generate GDP per capita 20 per cent above the OECD average, but the actual result is more than 20 per cent below average. We may be punching above our weight, but that's only because we are in the wrong weight division!" In August, Bloxham admitted that "the sharp decline in dairy prices over the last six months has clouded the outlook somewhat". In December however Bloxham stated that he thought the New Zealand economy would continue to grow strongly.

In 2014 increased attention was paid to the growing gap between rich and poor. In The Guardian, Max Rashbrook said policies implemented by both Labour and National governments have increased inequality. He claims that for twenty years outrage "has been muted", but "Alarm bells are finally beginning to sound. Recent polling shows three-quarters of New Zealanders think theirs is no longer an egalitarian country".

COVID-19 pandemic and recession (2020–22)

New Zealand recorded its first case of COVID-19 on 28 February 2020. In response to the pandemic, the country closed its borders to everyone except New Zealand citizens and residents on 19 March, and went into full lockdown from 26 March to 27 April, followed by a partial lockdown from 28 April to 13 May.

The border closure combined with the lockdowns saw the retail, accommodation, hospitality, and transport sectors experiencing major declines. On 17 September 2020, New Zealand officially entered a recession, with the country's gross domestic product retracting by 12.2% in the June quarter. The GDP rebounded 14% in the September quarter to leave a 2.2% year-on-year retraction.

After successfully containing the virus, the New Zealand economy had sharp growth in what is known as a V-shaped recovery and ended the year with an overall economic expansion of 0.4%, better than the predicted 1.7% contraction. Unemployment also dropped to 4.9% in December 2020, down from a peak Covid effected rate of 5.3% in September.

Restrictions returned in late 2021 after COVID-19 was again present in New Zealand and continued until late 2023.

By 23 September 2021, the Restaurant Association's Chief executive Marisa Bidois estimated that about 1,000 hospitality businesses nationwide had been forced to close as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to the loss of 13,000 jobs. In response, the Association lobbied the Government for Government for continued wage subsidies and incentives to boost customer rates. On 13 November 2021, the Bay of Plenty Times reported that 26,774 companies had been liquidated during the first eight months of 2021.

On 27 January 2022, New Zealand's inflation rate hit a 30-year record high of 5.9% at the end of 2021. According to figures released by Statistics New Zealand, the rising cost of construction, petrol and rents pushed the consumer price index up 1.4 per cent between October and December 2021. Statistics NZ also recorded a two percent increase in household utilities expenses, which was fuelled by the rising costs of new dwellings (which rose by 16% from 2020) and a 30 percent hike in fuel prices (from NZ $1.87 per litre to $2.45 per litre). Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern attributed the sharp inflation rate to rising crude oil prices overseas. By contrast, the opposition National Party leader Christopher Luxon and Finance spokesperson Simon Bridges attributed rising inflation to the Government's "wasteful" spending.

On 1 February 2022, an annual report released by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) identified the country's border restrictions and declining house prices as the main risks facing New Zealand's economy that year. While the OECD report credited New Zealand's elimination strategy and macroeconomic stimuli such as wage and socio-economic subsidies with helping the economy to bounce back to pre-COVID-19 levels, it also warned that excessive Government spending was causing the economy to overheat and substantial increases in household and government debt. The OECD welcomed the Reserve Bank's decision to raise interest rates but also urged the Government to raise the superannuation age, eliminate obstacles to building houses, and reduce government spending. The OECD also supported the introduction of a social insurance scheme for unemployed workers.

Post COVID-19 pandemic (2023–present)

After the last COVID-19 restrictions were abandoned in 2023, New Zealand entered economic stagnation and recession. Continued inflation, interest rate rises and low consumer spending lead to low-to-negative economic growth from 2022 through 2024.

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