Lably
Skip to content

2020 Pacific typhoon season

  • 40 min read
  • 5 chapters

Related on Lably

Through El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Korea and South Korea

The scope of this article is limited to the Pacific Ocean to the north of the equator between 100°E and 180th meridian. Within the northwestern Pacific Ocean, there are two separate agencies that assign names to tropical cyclones which can often result in a cyclone having two names. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) will name a tropical cyclone should it be judged to have 10-minute sustained wind speeds of at least 65 kilometers per hour (40 mph) anywhere in the basin, whilst the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) assigns names to tropical cyclones which move into or form as a tropical depression in their area of responsibility located between 135°E and 115°E and between 5°N–25°N regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone has already been given a name by the JMA. Tropical depressions that are monitored by the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are given a number with a "W" suffix.

Seasonal forecasts

During the year several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many tropical cyclones, tropical storms, and typhoons will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, PAGASA and Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau. The first forecast for the year was released by PAGASA on January 22 predicting the first half of 2020, within its monthly seasonal climate outlook. The PAGASA predicts that only 0–4 tropical cyclones are expected to form or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between January and March, while 3–6 tropical cyclones are expected to form between April and June. This was due to the fact that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation was seeing neutral conditions across the Pacific, and could persist until midyear. On May 21, the TSR issued their extended-range forecast for 2020, forecasting tropical activity below the average normal, with 26 tropical storms, 15 typhoons and 8 intense typhoons. These numbers were supported by the current values from the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index and the sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.75 region, leading to a stronger than normal trade windspeed throughout much of the Western Pacific.

On June 24, the PAGASA issued a climate forecast, predicting the number of tropical cyclones for the second half of the season. They predicted that 6–12 tropical cyclones are expected to form between the months of July and September, while 4–8 tropical cyclones are expected to form between the months of October and December. On July 9, TSR issued their forecast for the season, predicting a well-below average season with 26 named storms, 14 typhoons and only 7 intense typhoons. On August 6, TSR issued their third and final forecast for the season, lowering their numbers to 21 named storms, 13 typhoons and 5 intense typhoons. They mentioned that the 2020 season is expected to be one of the "least active typhoon seasons on record", with a predicted ACE index barely half of the normal and a 96% probability of being a below-average season.

Sign in to keep reading

4 more chapters are free with a Lably account.

More in Earth science