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Through Weather, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Rain

Global conditions

As 2020 began, sea surface temperatures were above normal in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, which had the potential to develop into El Niño conditions. On January 9, a group of climate scientists writing for ENSO Blog published their forecast for atmospheric conditions. They believed that there was a 60% chance that the environment would remain in neutral conditions related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); this was based on the expectation that the above normal water temperatures would return to normal. By March, there was little evidence of increased rainfall near the equator. Trade winds were enhanced in the central and tropical Pacific Ocean, and water temperatures remained above normal. On April 9, ENSO Blog reaffirmed their belief that environmental conditions would remain neutral. However, the sea surface temperatures near the equatorial pacific began to cool well below average, indicating a developing La Niña. As a result, the ENSO Blog issued La Niña watch, stating a 50–55% chance of a strong La Niña. In September, NOAA confirmed that the environment shifted to a La Niña pattern, based on lower than normal water temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. The ENSO Blog estimated a 75% chance that La Niña conditions would persist through the end of the year, in part due to a strengthening Walker circulation.

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