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2016 Pacific typhoon season

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Through South Korea and Christmas

The development of Nepartak made the second-latest time within a season for the first named storm to develop and ended a 199-day period (from December 17, 2015 – July 3, 2016) during which no named storm was active in the basin. Tropical Storm Mirinae reached peak intensity while making landfall over the Red River Delta, causing very severe damage in Northern Vietnam. By the end of August, three storms had hit the Japanese island of Hokkaidō, the most since 1951. In September, Typhoon Meranti reached peak intensity with a minimum pressure of 890 hPa, becoming one of the most intense tropical cyclones on record. Typhoon Chaba became the strongest typhoon to strike South Korea since 2012. Tropical Storm Aere and a tropical depression brought the worst flooding in Vietnam since 2011. The last storm of the season, Typhoon Nock-ten, became the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded worldwide on Christmas Day (December 25) since at least 1960, in terms of 1-minute maximum sustained winds.

The scope of this article is limited to the Pacific Ocean to the north of the equator between 100°E and 180th meridian. Within the northwestern Pacific Ocean, there are two separate agencies that assign names to tropical cyclones which can often result in a cyclone having two names. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) will name a tropical cyclone should it be judged to have 10-minute sustained wind speeds of at least 65 km/h (40 mph) anywhere in the basin, whilst the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) assigns names to tropical cyclones which move into or form as a tropical depression in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) located between 135°E and 115°E and between 5°N–25°N regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone has already been given a name by the JMA. Tropical depressions that are monitored by the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are given a number with a "W" suffix.

Seasonal forecasts

During the year several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many tropical cyclones, tropical storms, and typhoons will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies included the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, PAGASA and Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau. Some of the forecasts took into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the El Niño conditions that were observed during the previous year. The first forecast of the year was released by PAGASA during January 2016, within its seasonal climate outlook for the period January – June. The outlook noted that one to two tropical cyclones were expected between January and March, while one to three were expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between April and June.

During March the Hong Kong Observatory predicted that the typhoon season in Hong Kong would be near-normal, with four to seven tropical cyclones passing within 500 km (310 mi) of the territory compared to an average of six, which was revised to five to eight tropical cyclones in August. On May 7, Tropical Storm Risk issued its first forecast for the season and predicted that it will be a quiet season, with 22 tropical storms, 13 typhoons, and 6 intense typhoons developing during the year, while an ACE Index of 217 was also forecast. Ahead of the Thailand rainy season starting during May, the Thai Meteorological Department predicted that two tropical cyclones would move near Thailand during 2016. They predicted that there was a high chance that the first tropical cyclone would move past northern and north-eastern Thailand during August or September. The second tropical cyclone was predicted to move past Southern Thailand during October and November. On June 28, Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau predicted that between 19 and 23 tropical storms would develop over the basin, while two — four systems were expected to affect Taiwan itself.

On July 6, TSR released their second forecast for the season. They predicted mostly the same numbers as the previous forecast, but raised the number of intense typhoons to 7. PAGASA issued their second and final forecast for the year on July 15, within its seasonal climate outlook for the period July – December. The outlook noted that between five and eleven tropical cyclones were expected between July and September, while four to nine were expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between October and December. TSR issued their final forecast for the season on August 8, sustaining the tropical cyclone numbers, however its ACE was slightly lowered than the previous forecast.

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