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Holocene extinction

Ongoing extinction event caused by human activity

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Current extinction rates are estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than natural background extinction rates. The Holocene extinction was preceded by the Late Pleistocene extinctions at the end of the last ice age (to which human activity also likely contributed) and the extinctions caused by Polynesian expansion.

The Holocene extinction continues into the 21st century, driven by anthropogenic climate change, destruction of wetlands, deforestation, overfishing, ocean acidification, human population growth, economic growth, and increasing consumption, particularly among affluent societies. Factors such as rising meat production and the destruction of critical habitats compound these issues. Other drivers include overexploitation of natural resources, pollution, and climate change-induced shifts in ecosystems.

Major extinction events during this period have been recorded across all continents, including Africa, Asia, Europe, Australia, North and South America, and various islands.

Overview

Mass extinctions are characterized by the loss of at least 75% of species within a geologically short period of time (i.e., less than 2 million years). The Holocene is the current geological epoch.

The precise timing of the Holocene extinction event remains debated, with no clear consensus on when it began or whether it should be considered distinct from the Quaternary extinction event. However, most scientists agree that human activities are the primary driver of the Holocene extinction. A 1998 survey conducted by the American Museum of Natural History found that 70% of biologists acknowledged an ongoing anthropogenic extinction event. Some researchers suggested that the activities of earlier archaic humans may have contributed to earlier extinctions, especially in Australia, New Zealand, and Madagascar. Even modest hunting pressure, combined with the vulnerability of large animals on isolated islands, is thought to have been enough to wipe out entire species. Only in the more recent stages of the Holocene have plants suffered extensive losses, which are also linked to human activities such as deforestation and land conversion.

Extinction rate

The contemporary rate of extinction is estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than the natural background extinction rate—the typical rate of species loss through natural evolutionary processes. One estimation suggested the rate could be as high as 10,000 times the background extinction rate, though this figure remains controversial. Theoretical ecologist Stuart Pimm has noted that the extinction rate for plants alone is 100 times higher than normal.

While some argue that the current extinction rates have not yet reached the catastrophic levels of past mass extinctions, Barnosky et al. (2011) and Hull et al. (2015) points out that extinction rates during past mass extinctions cannot be fully determined because of gaps in the fossil record. The former acknowledge that "the recent loss of species is dramatic and serious" but it does not "yet qualify as a mass extinction in the palaeontological sense of the Big Five". Estimates of species lost per year vary widely—from 1.5 to 40,000 species—but all indicate that human activity is driving this crisis.

In The Future of Life (2002), biologist Edward Osborne Wilson predicted that, if current trend continues, half of Earth's higher lifeforms could be extinct by 2100. More recent studies further support this view. A 2015 study on Hawaiian snails suggested that up to 7% of Earth's species may already be extinct. A 2021 study also found that only around 3% of the planet's terrestrial surface remains ecologically and faunally intact—areas that still have healthy populations of native species and minimal human footprint. A 2022 study suggests that if global warming continues, between 13% and 27% of terrestrial vertebrate species could be driven to extinction by 2100, with habitat destructions and co-extinctions accounting for the rest.

The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, published by the United Nations IPBES, estimated that about one million species are currently at risk of extinction within decades because of human activities. Organized human existence is jeopardised by increasingly rapid destruction of the systems that support life on Earth, according to the report, the result of one of the most comprehensive studies of the health of the planet ever conducted. Moreover, the 2021 Economics of Biodiversity review, published by the UK government, asserts that "biodiversity is declining faster than at any time in human history." According to a 2022 study published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, a survey of more than 3,000 experts says that the extent of the mass extinction might be greater than previously thought, and estimates that roughly 30% of species "have been globally threatened or driven extinct since the year 1500". In a 2022 report, IPBES listed unsustainable fishing, hunting, and logging as some of the primary drivers of the global extinction crisis.

A 2023 study published in PLOS One shows that around two million species are threatened with extinction, double the estimate put forward in the 2019 IPBES report. According to a 2023 study published in PNAS, at least 73 genera of animals have gone extinct since 1500. If humans had never existed, the study estimates it would have taken 18,000 years for the same genera to have disappeared naturally, leading the authors to conclude that "the current generic extinction rates are 35 times higher than expected background rates prevailing in the last million years under the absence of human impacts" and that human civilization is causing the "rapid mutilation of the tree of life".

Attribution

There is widespread consensus among scientists that human activities—especially habitat destruction, resource consumption, and the elimination of species—are the main drivers of the current extinction crisis. Rising extinction rates among mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and other groups have led many scientists to declare a global biodiversity crisis.

Scientific debate

The description of recent extinction as a mass extinction has been debated among scientists. Stuart Pimm, for example, asserts that the sixth mass extinction "is something that hasn't happened yet—we are on the edge of it." Several studies posit that the Earth has entered a sixth mass extinction event, including a 2015 paper by Barnosky et al. and a November 2017 statement titled "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice", led by eight authors and signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries which asserted, among other things, that "we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be extirpated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century." The World Wide Fund for Nature's 2020 Living Planet Report says that wildlife populations have declined by 68% since 1970 as a result of overconsumption, population growth, and intensive farming, which is further evidence that humans have unleashed a sixth mass extinction event; however, this finding has been disputed by one 2020 study, which posits that this major decline was primarily driven by a few extreme outlier populations, and that when these outliers are removed, the trend shifts to that of a decline between the 1980s and 2000s, but a roughly positive trend after 2000. The 2020 study has been criticized for methodological flaws and for "downplaying biodiversity loss". A 2021 report in Frontiers in Conservation Science which cites both of the aforementioned studies, says "population sizes of vertebrate species that have been monitored across years have declined by an average of 68% over the last five decades, with certain population clusters in extreme decline, thus presaging the imminent extinction of their species," and asserts "that we are already on the path of a sixth major extinction is now scientifically undeniable." A January 2022 review article published in Biological Reviews builds upon previous studies documenting biodiversity decline to assert that a sixth mass extinction event caused by anthropogenic activity is currently under way. A December 2022 study published in Science Advances states that "the planet has entered the sixth mass extinction" and warns that current anthropogenic trends, particularly regarding climate and land-use changes, could result in the loss of more than a tenth of plant and animal species by the end of the century. 12% of all bird species are threatened with extinction. A 2023 study published in Biological Reviews found that, of 70,000 monitored species, some 48% are experiencing population declines from anthropogenic pressures, whereas only 3% have increasing populations.

According to the UNDP's 2020 Human Development Report, The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene:

The planet's biodiversity is plunging, with a quarter of species facing extinction, many within decades. Numerous experts believe we are living through, or on the cusp of, a mass species extinction event, the sixth in the history of the planet and the first to be caused by a single organism—us.

The 2022 Living Planet Report found that vertebrate wildlife populations have plummeted by an average of almost 70% since 1970, with agriculture and fishing being the primary drivers of this decline.

Some scientists, including Rodolfo Dirzo and Paul R. Ehrlich, contend that the sixth mass extinction is largely unknown to most people globally and is also misunderstood by many in the scientific community. They say it is not the disappearance of species, which gets the most attention, that is at the heart of the crisis, but "the existential threat of myriad population extinctions".

Anthropocene

The abundance of species extinctions considered anthropogenic, or due to human activity, has sometimes (especially when referring to hypothesized future events) been collectively called the "Anthropocene extinction". Anthropocene is a term introduced in 2000. Some now postulate that a new geological epoch has begun, with the most abrupt and widespread extinction of species since the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event 66 million years ago.

The term "anthropocene" is being used more frequently by scientists, and some commentators may refer to the current and projected future extinctions as part of a longer Holocene extinction. The Holocene–Anthropocene boundary is contested, with some commentators asserting significant human influence on climate for much of what is normally regarded as the Holocene Epoch. Some experts mark the transition from the Holocene to the Anthropocene at the onset of the industrial revolution. They also note that the official use of this term in the near future will heavily rely on its usefulness, especially for Earth scientists studying late Holocene periods.

It has been suggested that human activity has made the period starting from the mid-20th century different enough from the rest of the Holocene to consider it a new geological epoch, known as the Anthropocene, a term which was considered for inclusion in the timeline of Earth's history by the International Commission on Stratigraphy in 2016, but the proposal was rejected in 2024. To constitute the Holocene as an extinction event, scientists must determine exactly when anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions began to measurably alter natural atmospheric levels on a global scale, and when these alterations caused changes to global climate. Using chemical proxies from Antarctic ice cores, researchers have estimated the fluctuations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) gases in the Earth's atmosphere during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene epochs. Estimates of the fluctuations of these two gases in the atmosphere, using chemical proxies from Antarctic ice cores, generally indicate that the peak of the Anthropocene occurred within the previous two centuries: typically beginning with the Industrial Revolution, when the highest greenhouse gas levels were recorded.

Human ecology

A 2015 article in Science suggested that humans are unique in ecology as an unprecedented "global superpredator", regularly preying on large numbers of fully grown terrestrial and marine apex predators, and with a great deal of influence over food webs and climatic systems worldwide. Although significant debate exists as to how much human predation and indirect effects contributed to prehistoric extinctions, certain population crashes have been directly correlated with human arrival. Human activity has been the main cause of mammalian extinctions since the Late Pleistocene. A 2018 study published in PNAS found that since the dawn of human civilization, the biomass of wild mammals has decreased by 83%. The biomass decrease is 80% for marine mammals, 50% for plants, and 15% for fish. Currently, livestock make up 60% of the biomass of all mammals on Earth, followed by humans (36%) and wild mammals (4%). As for birds, 70% are domesticated, such as poultry, whereas only 30% are wild.

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